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131
 楼主| 发表于 2005-10-2 08:13:45 | 只看该作者

9.29中3。JAKE5-09-2.MP3

5-9-29rm/jack5-09-2.rm

Jack Welch --- Straight From the Gut

"New Guy"

I approached the whole process with these thoughts:

One, I wanted my successor to be GE's unquestioned leader. I was concerned about sticking him with disappointed guys who could screw up the spirit and values we worked so hard to create.

Two, I wanted to take the politics out of the process. Leader-ship transitions are an enormous distraction to organizations that need to focus outward, not inward. When I went through the last succession, things became highly political and divisive. Reg didn't intentionally cause the politics. It was the process. By bringing all the candidates to headquarters, he got a closer look at everyone in the race. Tough politics was a heavy price for that look.

Three, I wanted to be sure the board was deeply involved in the decision. Going forward, our directors needed to be united behind one person. ! had that support in my critical early years. It was a godsend. The board's coaching and support during my "down periods'' when I was called Neutron Jack and when I struggled with our problems at Kidder, Peabody--was incredibly valuable to me.

And four, ! wanted to pick someone young enough to be in the job for at least a decade. While a CEO can have an immediate impact, I always felt people should live with their decisions and especially with their mistakes. ! certainly had.

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[此贴子已经被作者于2005-10-2 8:50:15编辑过]

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132
 楼主| 发表于 2005-10-2 08:20:34 | 只看该作者

9.29中4。ENRON7-12.MP3

5-9-29rm/ex4-08-3.rm

执行--如何完成任务的学问

Execution--The Discipline of Getting Things Done LEADERS GET THE BEHAVIOR

THEY EXHIBIT AND TOLERATE

WHY THE RIGHT PEOPLE

AREN'T IN THE RIGHT JOBS

They Follow Through

LARRY: Once I embrace an initiative, I make sure it's put into effect. If I let it wane after six months, wasting money and people's time, that's going to reduce my effectiveness in making future initiatives. People will think, "We'll give this three months, and o1' Larry will be off on something else," and their body language will show that they're skeptical. So I make a point of emphasizing that I'm committed and that we're going to do this. We may do it with or without everybody's support, but we're going to do it. Then people get the message quickly that this is not an experiment.

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133
 楼主| 发表于 2005-10-2 08:25:37 | 只看该作者

9.29中4。buffet3-01-2.MP3

5-9-29rm/buffet3-01-2.rm

The Buffettology 巴菲特原则 With a price-competitive business the cost of production may increase with inflation while the price it can charge for its product decreases--a miserable situation to be in.

THE DURABLE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE AND INFLATION

For Warren, a business with a durable competitive advantage is free to increase the prices of its products right along with inflation, without experiencing a decline in demand. That way its profits remain fat, no matter how inflated the economy gets. H&R Block, Nike, Coca-Cola, Hershey's, Mattel, and Allstate all have increased the prices of their products with inflation without experiencing a decline in demand. Yet the most interesting aspect of the durable competitive advantage and inflation is that this increase in product price has also caused an increase in earnings, which has led to an increase in the underlying value of the business. Let me explain.

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134
 楼主| 发表于 2005-10-2 08:31:13 | 只看该作者

9.29中5。WS49-1.MP3

5-9-29rm/ws49-1.rm

Take on the street (较量华尔街) How the Virtual CLOB Was Born

A late-summer meeting in the dining room of Hank Paulson, the chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs Group, convinced me that the time was ripe to lay down some markers on how the markets should evolve. Paulson relayed his frustration with the NYSE, which was brushing off his concerns that the Big Board was falling behind technologically. It lacked the automation and anonymity of ECNs. Because only the specialist could see what was in the order book, it lacked transparency. And fragmentation was growing--there was no competition among the orders that market centers were receiving. To fix this, Paulson endorsed an idea that had been floating around for years: a central limit-order book, or CLOB, which is a fancy term for collecting all orders in a single clearinghouse, for all investors to see. Ordermatching would take place on a first come, first served basis.

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135
 楼主| 发表于 2005-10-2 08:36:54 | 只看该作者

9.29中6.enron7-12.MP3

5-9-29rm/enron7-12.rm

Anatomy of greed (解剖贪婪--安然内幕) Racicot, Paul Jr. $400,000 Butts, Robert $375,000 Rogers, Rex $375,000 Beck, Sally $350,000 Gonzales, Eric $350,000 Seeligson, Stewart $350,000 Bradford, William $300,000 Dietrich, Janet $300,000 Faldyn, Rodney $300,000 Hermann, Robert $300,000 Joyce, Mary $300,000 Left, Daniel $300,000 McGowan, Kevin $300,000 Rieker, Paula $300,000 Schuler, W. $300,000

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136
 楼主| 发表于 2005-10-2 08:40:15 | 只看该作者

9。29中7。skill5-9-29-1.MP3

5-9-29rm/skill5-9-29-1.rm

Professional Assertiveness (以下斜体字部分为测试题及答案) What questions did you ask to assess if Brandon was successful at using the steps to providing positive feedback? Choose all that apply. Has Brandon provided reinforcement for Kendra’s behavior? Has Brandon counseled Kendra to make the right choice? Has Brandon adequately prepared to be a mentor? Has Brandon reviewed Kendra’s goals with her? Has Brandon described Kendra’s performance? (key: 1 4 5 ) You believe you’re a reasonable supervisor who’s supportive of your employees. Most of your employees seem to appreciate your feedback, even the constructive criticism you provide to them during one-on-one sessions. One of your employees, Jennifer, has been a problem recently. She’s been consistently late to work during the past month. Today is Wednesday, and it’s the third day this week that Jennifer has arrived late. She hasn’t come forward with an excuse or a reasonable explanation. In fact, She’s clearly avoiding you. So you’ve decided to discuss the matter with her in your office. You believe that its clearly time you provided Jennifer with some constructive criticism. Now, answer the following questions in order. You’re starting your conversation with Jennifer. What would you say to Jennifer to initiate the discussion of this i8ssue? Select the best answer. Jennifer, you’ve arrived late every day this week and we need to discuss your tardiness. It’s causing extra work for others. Jennifer, I’ve been meaning to talk to you about several performance factors, including arriving on time and meeting deadlines. Jennifer, you’ve been coming in late recently. In fact, the past few months you’ve been late quite often. Do you realize that? (key: 1 ) Jennifer has acknowledged that she’s been late this week, but she’s asked you why you perceive this as a major problem. How should you respond? Choose the best answer. It just seems to me that you’re having a lot of difficulties here in the office. That just adds to the problems you’re having with your schedule. Not only have you been late every day this week, but I’ve also heard that you’ve been late many times over the past few months. I’ve kept track of your arrival times and it’s not just that you’ve been late all three days this week. Unfortunately, you’ve been late 13 times in the past month. (key: 3 ) You would like to move toward resolution of the issue. What might you say to Jennifer now? Select only one answer. Why is it that others can get to work on time but you don’t seem to be able to do so? That’s what you need to be thinking about. Think about it and send me a memo this afternoon stating point by point how you intend to resolve this issue. I’d like to help you develop a strategy for getting into the office on time every day. Let’s set up some milestones you can work toward. (key: 3 )

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137
 楼主| 发表于 2005-10-2 09:08:14 | 只看该作者

9。28

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Interview: Analyst at National City >> existing home sales unexpectedly surged in august running counter to some hints the housing market may be peaking. still, according to a survey by the national association of homebuilders, optimism among the group fell for a third straight month in september. let’s take a closer look at housing with dan poole, an analyst at national city. nice to have you on. >> great to be here, ellen. >> dan, were you surprised by the home resell numbers that came? >> not terribly. some of the home builders we have talked to and surveys we have seen, many in the investment community like to say things are slowing. yes, they’re slowing but we’re hearing adjectives from frantic to really strong. the fact that the numbers were good is not a surprise. existing home sales is a much truer number of what is going on in housing because unlike government estimates, it’s a real life number that the realtors put out once a month and we put a little more confidence in it. we weren’t really surprised. >> we have the new home sales figures due tomorrow. give us a look ahead at what you anticipate. >> the home builders we have been speaking with continue to say that business is very good. we really don’t see that there’s going to be a dramatic falloff. i think last week between katrina and rita there was some real concern that the consumer was going away. the housing markets haven’t shown it. we think we get a fine number tomorrow as well. >> put it in the context of having comments again today from fed chairman alan greenspan about the housing market saying speculation is having a greater role in u.s. home prices. he has been out there for several months now talking about the housing boom. what is your perspective when you hear comments like this? >> well, clearly there is speculation out there. any time you have taxi drivers and others outside of the market speculating, talking about great investments, there’s some froth. but in the big picture, if you take new household formation, second homes, depletion of the existing home stock, there isn’t that much out there to a confidence. there is some speculation out there. underlying fund amountals of this market are really healthy. you have to go back to 1999 to find a time period—this is back in the days when home builders did not outperform of rest of discretionary. this is a strong, solid market . some speculation, absolutely. but the underlying market is pretty good, too. >> let’s talk about the investments then. when you look at home builders, they have come off highs. what are you currently recommending to investors in terms of whether it makes sense to pare back on investments? >> we have pared back for a while. we have overweight to the home builders. still think that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. we’re also in some other areas related to hougs, some building materials companies are well positioned. but we still do have a position in the homebuilders. one of the names we happen to like most lately is lennar. they were out on the tape last week taking numbers up, looking at earnings from the company tomorrow, we think underlying fundamentals are solid. compared to other homebuilders, the stock has not done as well this year. we think it’s attract actively valued here. >> it’s interesting because phret o pretty much unchanged, up less than 1%. do you personally own lennar? >> do i not. >> any of the home builders that you think will come out and lower forecasts? we have heard from i believe one company so far that has talked about problems. any others that you think are out there? >> probably not. any time a company—a homebuilder does that, they’re inevitably one of two situations. either it’s market specific and they don’t have a diversified geographic space or two, legal issues or other things have cut their development count down. those are usually short lived. the underlying fundamentals of this market we still think are pretty good. >> in terms of building materials plays, give us the one thaw think is the best pick right now. >> we have been interested in mohawk. ticker m.h.a. pulled back a bit. they announced an acquisition. we were in front of that. that did really well. there is concern of petroleum costs. they’re in the heart of soft surface flooring industry. oil and components make up a big portion of the cost of goods sold, on the soft goods side. >> dan, let me ask you, that stock is down 15% so far this year. what are you seeing that other investors are not seeing? >> two things. first, attractive valuation. this is most important. this company has historically had very—they pass along their prices. price increases usually stick. we think price increases will continue to stick. there will be noise along the way, particularly when oil prices are up where they are, but at end we think price increases go through, they stick and earnings should be there. >> dan, real briefly, do you own that? >> i do not. >> dan poole, thank you for joining us. dan poole of national city. we take a quick break. we come back and have more on the markets . we’ll have world and national news update. keep it here. “after the bell” will continue in two minutes’ time.

Market briefing -- Ellen (slow) Interview: PNC Financial >> welcome back to “after the bell.” i’m ellen braitman. let’s recan’t day on wall street. the dow jones industrial average and nasdaq ending the day higher. s&p little changed. stocks rebounding from the worst week in three months. that’s what we saw last week. gains today led by energy shares as refinery shutdowns following hurricane rita lifted oil prices. also, insurers gained after damage from the storm was less than originally forecast. well, today we heard from two federal reserve governors and they say the economy likely to remain strong even after the two hurricanes have pummeled the gulf coast. federal reserve bank of chicago president michael moskow spoke to reporters after a speech to the national association of business economists. this is what he said. >> financial markets and the public do not seem bothered by the lack of an explicit number for future inflationary expectations. and at present time, inflationary expectations are well anchored. >> in the meantime, fed governor susan bies said this from washington, d.c.. >> the longer the prices stay higher, the more likely an impact on prices in general. but at this point, we’re still seeing an underlying core resilience in the economy. it was strong before the hurricanes hit. and all of the rebuilding that will be required is clearly going to also show up in strong economic numbers once we get through the immediate impact. >> these comments by two of the voting members of the federal open market committee suggest that the fed’s policy of raising interest rates at what it called a measured pace to prevent a surge in inflation remains in tact. well, is that the case? let’s ask stuart hoffman of p.n.c. financial. he joins us right now from chicago from that meeting of the national association of business economists. he is the president of the group. he joins us from there. stuart, nice to talk to you. >> nice to talk to you. glad to be able to join you. >> what is the tone of the conference? >> well, the tone of the conference is there’s a lot of concern about energy prices. seems to be the number one concern. maybe more natural gas than crude oil. looking ahead they seem to agree with earlier comments made by the two fed policymakers that certainly katrina will knock down and now rita economic growth this quarter and into the remainder of the year. but our group feels that that is likely a temporary setback and u.s. economy’s growth will be at least on trend if not a bit higher in 2006. >> stuart, what is interesting, the most recent survey you did of this group, of the economists shows that katrina slowed growth by less than half a percentage point. were you surprised by the modesty of that number given that we have had the federal government give numbers up to one percentage point of a drag on the economy? >> i mean the survey was taken in the immediate aftermath and we have learned more. i’m not all that surprised. what wasn’t reflected in the survey is how much of a rebuilding and how much that could add to economic growth in 2006. speaking for myself personally, i think economic growth in this half of the year will be knocked down by about .5%. but likewise i think the add to economic growth in 2006 from all the rebuilding, reconstruction, federal moneys as well as private insurance moneys could continue to support economic expansion in our group. we still think that economic growth next year could almost be 3.5% which we’d view as sort of on trend. so it’s not an above trend performance but it’s an economy that is continuing to grow on trend. the other thing that came out in the survey and that i worry about personally is that inflation is going to be higher. particularly headline inflation but some of those higher energy prices could show up in core inflation as we go forward not oepblt next couple of months but into 2006. >> what kind of concern. one thing that interested me and surprised me when i looked at the numbers from your survey it seemed like inflation according to the consensus of economists was not as big of a problem. >> the core number, the group came out that core inflation would be about the same next year as this year. about 2.3% or 2.4%. that is not a high number but as president moskow said, the fed has never announced a target range for inflation. the presumption is that for a 1% to 2%. as you get above 2%, you sort of get to the top of the comfort range. so fortunately our survey doesn’t see core inflation accelerating up to 3%. even if it’s a steady drumbeat at around 2.25% to 2.5%, that may be a bit higher than the federal reserve would want to tolerate beyond the next couple of quarters. >> and let’s talk a little more about oil. what are you hearing from your colleagues about why it’s not having more of a drag on consumer spending? >> there are offsets. employment growth is certainly up. housing activities remain strong. we also hear some concern that i would share that the home heating oil season, for at least half the country that has winter weather, that actually the average homeowner has about a 50% higher home heating bill than they have a summer gasoline bill. there is concern that as higher natural gas prices persist into the winter and that’s passed onto consumers, even’ weather is normal, that will take a bite out of consumer spending. if you look into next year, while we and myself would think that consumer spending will be slower, maybe business investment and housing, there is an equal offset in people’s expectation of government spending, particularly federal government spending could add as much to the economy as the private sector slowdown might take away. less from consumers and businesses, more from the federal government to get the kind of economic growth expected. >> stuart hoffman. >> thank you. >> stuart mentioned housing. we take a break and look at housing market straight ahead.

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138
 楼主| 发表于 2005-10-2 09:08:31 | 只看该作者

Chinese Goods Flood Dakar, Anger Competitors At the Centenaire market in Dakar, Chinese wholesalers line the street on both sides, renting warehouses for $1,000 a month, selling everything in bulk from plastic toys to space-age looking DVD players.

One buyer, Fatou Gueye, says Senegalese are poor and they love these new shops, because, she says finally she can afford something. Here she says, she can buy for children and adults, for her whole family, almost everything they need.

One man who has just turned himself from chronically unemployed to retailer is also very pleased. He is buying bras, cameras, shoes, belt buckles, pots, pans, colorful pens and notebooks to resell in stores and on the streets of Dakar.

He says it was very cheap to start his business. He started by selling a Chinese pair of shoes he had bought here for $1. There was no way of finding shoes for under $5 besides flip-flops before.

For many people who live on several dollars a day, that's a big difference.

The Senegalese manager of one of the warehouses says the Chinese have created Senegalese buying Chinese goods in Dakar (VOA Photo - E. Sillah) jobs. He says young kids who used to be pickpockets are now hired as messengers.

Asked whether Senegalese are not afraid the quality of Chinese goods might not be so good, he says that's nonsense. Senegalese want quantity, he says, they want to be able to afford things.

Generally, prices in the Chinese shops are three to five times cheaper than in Lebanese or Senegalese stores.

The invasion started last year when Senegal's government signed a bilateral agreement with China, to encourage Chinese businessmen to set up shop in Dakar. So-called Senegalese investment packages which include visas have been made readily available in China.

But Senegalese shopkeepers say many Chinese who bribe their way buy these business visas at lower than official prices, for about $1,000 a year, and that Chinese typically undervalue their incoming goods to pay lower customs fees as well.

One shopkeeper told VOA he is furious.

"Now I think that I have to change business or to change work because business is very hard because of the Chinese here in Senegal," he said. "We have to stop them here because they do not pay customs, they have bad, bad, bad products. Chinese are going to destroy our country. They have to go out. Chinese, they are going to kill our economy.

Chinese merchants refused to be interviewed for this report, saying their command of French and English was not good enough for an interview, only for making deals.

A social commentator, Aboubacar Oumar, tells VOA, Senegal might currently be the world's most open country to Chinese merchants.

"Senegal has what they call an open door market policy which means that government don't interfere in private sector business initiatives," he said. "So whoever can come in and invest. What they do is they open the market for competition.

So if the Chinese are selling at a cheaper price, what will happen, is if the Senegalese businessmen the way they are complaining, maybe the government will step in to regulate the market and probably put quotas on the Chinese," added Mr. Oumar.

For now, the government has yet to interfere.

Chinese wholesalers say they can make several thousand dollars a day being based in Dakar, compared to Senegalese merchants who say they usually struggle to make $100 in a month.

The invasion is having an impact in the region as well, as trucks can be heard coming in and out of the Centenaire market, taking the cheap Chinese goods to Mauritania, Mali, the Gambia and even the continent's biggest market, Nigeria.

The Millionaire Next Door Dr. Bill's goal always was to become financially independent, but he never wanted to become an entrepreneur. Often, entrepreneurs become wealthy by taking substantial risks and by leveraging the labor and talent of dozens, even hundreds, of others. Dr. Bill was never cut out to be anything but a professor. He is not alone. Most people in this country are not the entrepreneurial type. But this does not mean that they can't become millionaires.

People often confuse our message about the relationship between being wealthy and being an entrepreneur. We're not telling people to give up doing their own thing in medicine, law, accounting, and other occupations and join the ranks of the entrepreneurs in this country. Don't even consider such a change unless you really want to and are fully capable of succeeding. If you can generate a reasonably good income--say, twice the norm for households in America, or $65,000 to $70,000 then you may become wealthy one day if you follow the defensive strategy developed by millionaires who are used vehicle-prone shoppers.

Jack Welch --- Straight From the Gut

"New Guy"

To keep him anonymous, "NG" is what we called him. It was our code for the "New Guy."

Keeping the choice of my successor a secret was the easy part. But that was the only easy thing about it. Making the pick was not only the most important decision of my career, it was the most difficult and agonizing one I ever had to make. It damn near drove me crazy, causing many sleepless nights.

For at least a year, it was often the first thing I thought about each morning and the last thing on my mind at night.

What made it so hard was that we had three sensational final candidates: Jeff Immelt, who led our medical systems business; Bob Nardelli, who ran power systems; and Jim McNerney in air-craft engines. All three exceeded every expectation we set for them. Their performance was off the charts. Any one of the three could have run GE. Not only were they great leaders, they were my good friends--and I knew I had to dis-appoint two of them

Execution--The Discipline of Getting Things Done LEADERS GET THE BEHAVIOR

THEY EXHIBIT AND TOLERATE

WHY THE RIGHT PEOPLE

AREN'T IN THE RIGHT JOBS

They Follow Through

Leaders can either follow through one-on-one (for example, Dick Brown's "after-school" sessions, discussed in chapter 3) or in group settings as a feedback method. In the group, everybody learns something. The variety of viewpoints raised helps people see the criteria for the decisions, the judgments that are exercised, and the tradeoffs being made. This exposure calibrates people's judgments and aligns the team.

Never finish a meeting without clarifying what the follow-through will be, who will do it, when and how they will do it, what resources they will use, and how and when the next review will take place and with whom. And never launch an initiative unless you're personally committed to it and prepared to see it through until it's embedded in the DNA of an organization.

The Buffettology 巴菲特原则 NO. 7

FIGURING OUT WHETHER THE PRODUCT OR SERVICE

CAN BE PRICED TO KEEP ABREAST OF INFLATION

Inflation causes prices to rise. In a price-competitive business, when prices for labor and raw materials increase, overproduction may force the company to drop the prices of its products to stimulate demand. In that case, the cost of production sometimes exceeds the price the product will fetch in the marketplace, and that's no way to run a business. The company responds by cutting back production until the excess supply dries up. But that takes time. The laws of supply and demand work, but not overnight. In the meantime, the losses pile up and viability of the business diminishes. (Ranchers are constantly faced with this dilemma. The price of live cattle is dropping, but the costs of feed, fuel, labor, insurance, veterinarians, and grazing land continue to increase. Miscalculate next fall's cattle price and the family ranch may end up in foreclosure.)

This situation occurs periodically in the airline business. Air-lines commit themselves to all kinds of heavy fixed costs. Air-planes, fuel, union contracts for pilots, ground crews, mechanics, and attendants all cost a lot of money and all increase in cost with inflation. Then along comes a price war or a catastrophic event that makes people afraid to fly and the airlines have to cut ticket prices to fill seats. Want to fly from New York to Los Angeles? A half dozen or more airlines will compete for your business. If one drops prices significantly, they all end up losing. In the 1960s a round-trip airplane ticket from Omaha to Paris cost $1,000 or more. Recently, you could get one on United for $439. Even though the cost of airplanes, fuel, pilots, ground crews, mechanics, and those terrible airline meals have more than quadrupled in the last thirty years, my ticket, thanks to price competition, got cheaper. The airline that sold me that bargain ticket sure didn't get any richer. Now you know why airlines sometime miss the run-way and land in bankruptcy court.

Take on the street (较量华尔街) And internalization means that a large chunk of orders is cordoned off from the rest of the market, possibly denying investors a more favorable execution in another location.

In a short period of time, the wholesalers began to dominate the flow of orders. They had become money-making machines.

This development worried me. I was concerned about fragmentation, which is what happens when markets are divvied up into smaller market centers. While ECNs and the wholesale market-makers had introduced much-needed competition and vitality to the business of trading stocks, they also made it tougher for buyers and sellers to meet in a central place. When that happens, it's hard to know what the "true" price of a stock is.

Anatomy of greed (解剖贪婪--安然内幕) Fallon, James $1,500,000 McMahon, Jeffrey $1,500,000 Bowen, Raymond Jr. $750,000 Haedicke, Mark $750,000 Hickerson, Gary $700,000 Colwell, Wesley $600,000 DiMichele, Richard $600,000 Hughes, James $500,000 Nowlan, John Jr. $500,000 Hayslett, Roderick $400,000 Maxey, R. Davis $400,000 McClellan, George $400,000 Muller, Mark $400,000 Piper, Gregory $400,000

Professional Assertiveness (以下斜体字部分为测试题及答案) Brandon is a senior trainer at a communication conglomerate’s national training center. He’s held the position for six years. Brandon was a manager in a regional headquarters before he transferred into training. He made the move because he believed it would allow him to contribute more to the company and his co-workers. Currently, Brandon is advising Kendra, another trainer. Kendra’s wondering if she should stay in training or transfer to a management track. She’s asking Brandon for advice based on his experience. Brandon’s giving Kendra specific feedback on how he’s seen her perform in training situations. He’s also giving her his views about life in the management arena. Together, they’re reviewing Kendra’s goals: One set for training and another set if she changes her career track. And Brandon’s noting the positive behaviors Kendra exhibits that he believes will help her succeed, whatever career decision she makes. He’s also encouraging her to continue those behaviors. Now, answer the following questions in order. Was Brandon successful at using the steps for providing positive feedback in the scenario you just encountered? Choose the best answer. Yes, because he reinforced Kendra’s positive behavior after he talked about her performance and personal goals. Yes, because he provided the information Kendra needed in order to decide to change from training to the management track. No, because he didn’t help Kendra refine her goals in line with the strengths and weaknesses he thought she exhibited. No, because he avoided answering Kendra’s request for his recommendation on whether or not she should change career tracks. (key: 1 )

139
 楼主| 发表于 2005-10-2 09:15:03 | 只看该作者

9。28TXT

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140
 楼主| 发表于 2005-10-2 09:59:47 | 只看该作者

9。28MP3

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