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The RMB1,000 revolution
The advent of RMB1,000 (circa US$150) smartphones promises to revolutionise
China’s telecom industry and the global handset space. As well as driving 3G
subscriber growth in China, we expect the availability of affordable, capable entry-level
smartphones to lead to consolidation in the domestic handset industry, since small
white-box vendors don’t have a reliable upgrade path to 3G from either a chipset
sourcing or product distribution standpoint. Moreover, we think these phones will help
Chinese handset OEMs move up to the mid-range product segment, paving the way
for a further convergence in their valuations relative to handset brand vendors. We
forecast that China’s smartphone market will expand from 20mn units in 2010F to
62mn in 2012F, making it the world’s second-largest smartphone market (after the US)
by volume. We highlight a broad spectrum of beneficiaries from the arrival of
smartphones for the masses: handset vendors such as BYDE, TCL Com, ZTE and
HTC, along with retailer Gome. Qualcomm, China Wireless and Digital China also look
set to benefit, though we view prevailing valuations as fair. We see MediaTek as a
potential loser from the 2G-to-3G transition.
China to be the second-largest smartphone market by 2012F
Android to spur convergence of handset brand vendors and OEMs
3G transition to consolidate Chinese handset industry
Top picks: TCL Com, BYDE
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