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- fiscal [fiskəl]
adj. 会计的，财政的；国库的
- consumer [kən'sju:mə]
n. 消费者；用户，顾客
- inflation [in'fleiʃən]
n. 膨胀；通货膨胀；夸张；自命不凡
- aggressively [ə'gresivli]
adv. 侵略地；攻击地；有闯劲地
- stimulus ['stimjuləs]
n. 刺激；激励；刺激物
- investor [in'vestə]
n. 投资者
- economist [i'kɔnəmist]
n. 经济学者；节俭的人
- equity ['ekwəti]
n. 公平，公正；衡平法；普通股；抵押资产的净值
- indication [,indi'keiʃən]
n. 指示，指出；迹象；象征
Predictions of the Chinese economy’s imminent recovery have proved overly optimistic so far this year, but stabilising inflation and recent strong money growth are signalling that the slowdown may be nearing an end.
Chinese consumer price inflation dipped to 1.9 per cent in September from 2 per cent in August, showing the government still has room to ease monetary policy.
At the weekend, China reported that in September exports rose 9.9 per cent, a much stronger number than had been expected. While few analysts believe such strength will be sustainable if the European and US economies continue to struggle, the outlook is not as grim as initially feared.
“We have become more confident that the economy is bottoming out and will pick up in the months ahead, ” said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura.
China reports third-quarter economic data on Thursday and the country is widely expected to have recorded its seventh consecutive quarterly slowdown. Underlining the weakness, the World Bank last week downgraded its forecast for China’s full-year growth to 7.7 per cent, which would be its lowest in more than a decade.
Given this background and the government’s evident reluctance to unleash a large fiscal stimulus, it might seem foolhardy to predict an upturn before the end of the year. But several analysts are starting to do just that.
“China’s economy has continued to slow down in the past months and there is no rapid rebound in sight, ” Louis Kuijs of Royal Bank of Scotland said. “However, the ... trade data, together with the September data on financing, suggest a bottoming out may be in sight.”
Robust financing flows in September are the clearest indication that the economy could be taking a turn for the better. Although renminbi loans were a little weaker than expected, the broader picture of credit growth was much more positive.
The central bank has developed a concept called total social financing to encompass all forms of credit in the system, including equity and bond issuance, traditional bank loans and an array of off-balance-sheet loans. That overall number shot up to Rmb1.65tn ($260bn) in September from Rmb1.24tn in August.
For local governments, which have announced more than Rmb10tn of investment projects in recent months, this money will make it easier to get to work, even if their plans remain overambitious.
Wang Tao of UBS said: “The fact that bonds, trusts and other forms of social financing are helping to finance the funding needs at the local level means that public investment should continue to pick up in the coming months.”
Subdued consumer price pressures and falling producer prices also give the government more room to ease monetary policy without worrying about inflation.
Shen Jianguang of Mizuho Securities said: “Inflationary pressure will not be a primary concern for the economy in the coming months. It will thus provide scope for monetary easing.”
The People’s Bank of China has confounded many investors and analysts who had thought that it would ease monetary policy more aggressively. It last cut interest rates in July and has not trimmed lenders’ required reserves since May.
But in recent weeks, the central bank has injected a vast amount of short-term liquidity into the financial system via open-market operations, signalling a willingness to keep money relatively easy.
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