全流通又出“新政策“
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 168.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: 16.07; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">全流通又出“新政策“</SPAN><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">关于全流通的争论已经持续数年了，争论的焦点主要集中在如何给流通权定价及流通股东应得到多少补偿。我认为流通权定价应该交给市场，而流通股东应得的补偿则应该以各个上市公司为独立单元，在管理层的监督下进行协商。在全流通如何操作上我们应该有所突破，本文建议一个基本的操作思路：先是非流通股股东与流通股股东之间建立协议，然后进行全流通，最后根据全流通后的结果履行协议。</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">（一）流通权定价</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">上市公司股权全流通中的流通权价值应该包括两个部分：非流通股流通前后的价值变化</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun">Δ</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">n</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">和流通股在全流通前后的价值变化</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun">Δ<SPAN lang=EN-US>f</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，即：</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">流通权价值</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> = </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun">Δ</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">n + </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun">Δ<SPAN lang=EN-US>f<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>(1)</SPAN></SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">因此对于市场定价流通权，可以分为三个步骤。第一，在股权割裂的情况下，对上市公司进行整体定价。目前由于上市公司有两种股权，流通股可以场内场外交易，而非流通股只能在场外协议转让。则全流通前上市公司的整体市场价值为：</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">V</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>N = P1*S1 + P2*S2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>(2)</SPAN></FONT>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">流通股股价为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">P1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，股数为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">S1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，非流通股的场外协议转让价格为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">P2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，股数为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">S2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">由于目前大多数上市公司进行协议转让非流通股时，转让价格都是基于每股净资产，因此式</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">中的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">S2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">可以简化为每股净资产。</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">第二，全流通后上市公司的市场价值为：</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">V</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>F = P*S<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">（</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">）</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">P</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">为全流通后的股价，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">S = S1 + S2</FONT></SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">最后，流通权价值</SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN lang=EN-US> = </SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">V</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>F – </SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">V</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>N<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">（</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">）</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">显然从理论来说，</SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">V</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>F </SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">应大于等于</SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">V</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>N</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，因为如果赋予非流通股流通权后，反而使得整个公司的市场价值下降，那就没有全流通的必要了（可以用博弈论证明这一点）。这一点应作为管理层在全流通问题上的基本原则，而这一基本原则的贯彻也可以通过市场来实现，其思路将在下文提到。</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">（二）流通权价值的分配</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">如果全流通后存在价值升水，即是说流通权价值大于零，那么非流通股股东与流通股东在全流通过程将有正的净收益。为了使得全流通，非流通股东与流通股东必须得达成协议，由于不能预先确定流通权价值的大小，这个协议可以是弹性的。但必须预先设定一个基本原则：</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">若全流通后，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">P<P1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，即原流通股股价下跌，则先用流通权价值对原流通股东进行补偿其余部分再进行分配，分配比例由非流通方与流通方商榷。</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">（三）总结</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">流通权在理论上无疑是有价值的，其表现为赋予非流通股流通权后，公司的整体价值上升。因此，若有一个能够达成均衡的协议，非流通方与流通方应该理智地接受全流通。在全流通问题上，我们应该有突破性的思维。以前提出的全流通方案总是要在全流通前给一方确定的收益，而让另一方承担潜在风险。而本文作者提出应该由双方共同承担全流通后的收益与风险。</SPAN>
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