[原创]多家基金公司预计明年股指继续走高
<br/><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6pt"><a name="a7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" New? Roman??></span></b></a> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24.1pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>投资主线将围绕流动性推动和经济复苏展开</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span></b><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>国泰、中海、国海富兰克林等多家基金公司开始陆续发布</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>年投资策略报告。综合来看，这些公司普遍认为</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>年股指再创新高是大概率事件，但期间指数可能大幅波动，</span><span lang="EN-US">N</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>型走势得到大家的认同，投资主线将围绕流动性推动和经济复苏展开。</span> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24.1pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>密切关注</span><span lang="EN-US">CPI</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>弹性</span></b><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;> 对于</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>年的中国经济走势，多家基金公司认为，明年的主线应当是调整经济结构。靠出口拉动的经济模式已经不能为继，促内需将在未来很长时间内成为中国经济的主线。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>月经济数据也给了基金公司一个最新的判断明年经济走势的依据。总体来看，基金普遍认为，出口与消费对经济增长起到了更关键作用，流动性短期内依然充裕。申万巴黎基金进一步指出，预计出口将进一步改善，</span><span lang="EN-US">12</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>月增速有望转正，明年的增速有望达到</span><span lang="EN-US">10%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>左右。</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>月份</span><span lang="EN-US">CPI</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>同比上涨</span><span lang="EN-US">0.6%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>，结束了连续</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>个月的负增长，预计明年仍将呈现温和通胀格局，</span><span lang="EN-US">CPI</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>有望维持在</span><span lang="EN-US">2.5%-3%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>之间。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>有基金投资总监判断，在明年一季度之前，通胀、流动性、企业盈利预期等宏微观数据有利市场。从历史上看</span><span lang="EN-US">M1</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>增速超过</span><span lang="EN-US">M2</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>增速会持续一段时间，这段时间有利股市，但时间可能不会很长，对此要加以警惕。这些经济指标是基金等机构投资者在明年进行布局时的重要参考因素，尤其是对通货膨胀的判断，这对于制定明年投资策略至关重要，因为其关系到明年政策调控的强度以及企业利润所受影响的大小。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;><font face="宋体"> </font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>国泰基金对明年市场走势的判断是，很可能呈现扁平状的</span><span lang="EN-US">N</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>型。不过，明年的</span><span lang="EN-US">N</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>型和今年有较大区别。今年</span><span lang="EN-US">N</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>型中上涨和下跌阶段的时间比率非常悬殊，预计明年</span><span lang="EN-US">N</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>型中上涨阶段的持续时间应没有今年这么长。中海基金则认为，</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>年的指数回报集中在一季度和四季度的概率较大，建议对</span><span lang="EN-US">CPI</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>弹性大和</span><span lang="EN-US"> 2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>年盈利成长居于市场最前列的行业增加配置，钢铁、能源、农林牧渔、家电等行业可能在</span><span lang="EN-US">CPI</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>转正后面临阶段性加速上涨，同时应密切关注油价、物价、钢价等指标。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24.1pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>户籍制度改革成焦点</span></b><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;> 除了在配置上考虑通胀等因素外，基金普遍认为，</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>年投资机会的另一个重要方向要从中央经济工作会议精神中挖掘。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>诺德基金认为，从政策指向来看，明年的消费依然被寄予厚望，预期未来还将有继续提高居民消费能力的举措出台，比如社保体系的进一步完善、养老保险递延税制的出台等。国海富兰克林基金指出，政策指引行业配置方向，消费驱动的内需增长模式逐步启动，事实上大消费行业是基金已经重仓的板块。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>此外，城镇化及放宽户籍限制的政策取向，受到了基金的高度重视。他们认为这些放宽农村居民进入城市的政策，可能会对明年甚至未来几年产生深远的影响，其中蕴藏着极大的投资机遇。一方面，这意味着以二、三线城市开发为主的房地产股和建筑股将面临机会；另一方面，制度上的不断变革将释放出巨大的生产力。这就需要机构投资者认真去寻找相应的投资标的。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24.1pt"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>明年一季度料成最佳回报时段</span></b><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;> 从多家基金公司</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>年投资策略报告来看，乐观是主基调，对市场走势的预测大多相同，认为一季度和四季度上涨概率大，个股选择重要性在提升。不过也有基金指出，</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>年大背景更加复杂，面临流动性从放松到收回的风险。在这样的背景下，股市走势将比近两年复杂。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>这些基金乐观的理由是，在历史正常估值的前提下，如果经济持续改善就会逐渐提升股票的吸引力。未来股市上升由业绩提升来推动的可能性很大，慢牛的格局应是大概率事件。同时，从估值水平考察，目前并无整体泡沫。正如国海富兰克林基金指出，从估值角度看，以上证指数</span><span lang="EN-US">3000</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>点的位置计算，对应的</span><span lang="EN-US"> 2009</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>年、</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>年</span><span lang="EN-US">PE</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>为</span><span lang="EN-US">21</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>倍和</span><span lang="EN-US">17</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>倍，这样的估值水平对长期投资者具备一定吸引力，从而形成对指数的支撑。上证指数</span><span lang="EN-US">4000</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>点位置对应于</span><span lang="EN-US">2010 </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>年整体市盈率水平约</span><span lang="EN-US">22</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?? new="New" New? Roman?;>倍，较为合理。</span></p>
<p><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: AR-SA? mso-bidi-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-ansi-language: 1.0pt; mso-font-kerning: mso-bidi-font-family: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman?;>但各家基金公司对行情大小的判断各异。有公司认为明年能达到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times new=" mso-bidi-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-ansi-language: 1.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 宋体? mso-fareast-font-family: AR-SA; New? Roman?;>4500</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: AR-SA? mso-bidi-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-ansi-language: 1.0pt; mso-font-kerning: mso-bidi-font-family: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman?;>点，与目前相比，有近四成的升幅。但也有公司认为，明年出现大行情是小概率事件，必须对“投资时钟”做更为深入的挖掘，才能在有限的空间中获取更大的收益，优选个股很可能成为明年投资的关键。明年一季度是很多基金看好的可能产生最佳回报的时间段。此外，部分基金认为，明年四季度时，投资人注意力会逐步转移到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times new=" mso-bidi-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-ansi-language: 1.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 宋体? mso-fareast-font-family: AR-SA; New? Roman?;>2011</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: AR-SA? mso-bidi-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-ansi-language: 1.0pt; mso-font-kerning: mso-bidi-font-family: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman?;>年，而政府也可能出台相应政策支持经济发展，这或许也将支持市场在年末上涨。</span></p>
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