[转帖] 美元反弹能成气候
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">黄金价格持续震荡，但震幅较周三有所收缩，最低</span><span lang="EN-US">1120.70</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，收盘</span><span lang="EN-US">1132.45</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，金价对下方的试探仍然在继续，黄金近期与美元的走势吻合度较高，投资者需要更多的关注美元方面的变化。总体来看，美元大幅反弹的希望并不大，将会长久维持的低利率绑住了美元指数的反弹，黄金下跌的空间笔者认为并不大，做空要短止损，做波段。</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">近期美国及欧洲方面基本面较为清淡，市场的焦点更多的放在其它地区，韩国中央银行</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">日宣布，将</span><span lang="EN-US">12</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">月份的基准利率继续保持在</span><span lang="EN-US">2%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">的水平，这是韩国央行连续第</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">个月维持基准利率不变。同时宣布维持利率不变的还有新西兰中央银行——新西兰储备银行</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">日宣布，继续将基准利率维持在</span><span lang="EN-US">2.5%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">的历史最低水平不变。近期各国的利率决议可以看出，在国际贸易中对出口十分依赖的国家都做出了维持利率不变的决定，美元持续走低打压各国出口的同时也让美国国内就业与经济得到了很大缓解，目前的僵持仅仅是等待美国经济到达那个临界点，等到美国人手中赚到了美元想要消费的时候，美国自然会通过加息来提升美元的购买力。黄金在这里充当了过渡者的角色，是美元持有者被迫的选择，但在美国经济明显企稳前黄金的价值不会有大幅降低。</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">联合国国际能源署</span><span lang="EN-US">(IEA)</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">执行干事田中伸男近日警告称，哥本哈根峰会一旦失败，将为全球经济带来每年</span><span lang="EN-US">5000</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">亿美元损失。田中在巴黎说，从</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">年至</span><span lang="EN-US">2030</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">年，国际社会为挽回气候变化带来的影响而额外投资的总额，将达</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">万亿美元。各国能否在哥本哈根达成是一个不确定因素，其影响力不容小觑，投资者在本周并不建议隔夜留单，特别是在周五。</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">数据提示：</span><span lang="EN-US">17</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">点</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">分英国公布生产者物价输入与输出指数，</span><span lang="EN-US">21</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">点</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">分美国发布进口物价指数与核心零售销售月率，</span><span lang="EN-US">23</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">点美国发布商业库存月率与密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值。</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">操作建议：</span><span lang="EN-US">1140</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元做空，止损</span><span lang="EN-US">1147</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，目标</span><span lang="EN-US">1125</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元；</span><span lang="EN-US">1117</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元做多，止损</span><span lang="EN-US">1108</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，若到达此价位可留单隔夜持有。市场阴晴不定，波幅较大，近期操作应注意严格止损。</span></p>
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