[转帖]【金市达人】黄金基本面力量等待非农引爆
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">现货黄金昨日出现回落，在创造了历史高点</span><span lang="EN-US">1225.80</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元后有所回调，收盘</span><span lang="EN-US">1205.55</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，最低</span><span lang="EN-US">1203.80</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元。黄金的强势有所收敛，但对高点的尝试仍然在继续，做多的思路并不改变，而短线买入是笔者推荐的。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">周四最大的关注点是欧央行的利率决议，欧洲央行昨日决定将其基准利率维持在历史低点不变，主要目的是培育经济复苏，同时还有可能宣布逐步缩减其应急贷款规模的计划。欧洲央行已经决定开始撤出部分在全球经济未击中采取的非常规政策举措，这些措施在帮助欧元区经济方面发挥了重要作用。特里谢指出，金融市场状况改善显示经济各领域对央行刺激政策的依赖性已经较过去降低，但央行将继续向欧元区银行业系统提供充裕的流动性。讲话和利率的不变对欧元形成了一定的压力，支撑美元指数小幅反弹。对美元另外的支撑来自于美国自身，本周三美国财政部部长盖特纳在国会参议院农业委员会作证时表示，联邦政府决定尽快出台计划以终结</span><span lang="EN-US">7000</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">亿美元的问题资产救助计划。他同时强调，要加强对金融衍生品，特别是对场外交易衍生品市场的监管，以防范风险，避免再次引发金融危机。市场未形成大行情的主要因素是对今晚非农数据的观望态度，在基本面上目前已经有很大的力量蕴藏其中，今晚的非农或将引发一轮大的行情。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">在数据方面，欧盟统计局</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">日公布的修正数据显示，今年第三季度欧元区国内生产总值</span><span lang="EN-US">(GDP)</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">比上一个季度增长</span><span lang="EN-US">0.4%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">，与初步统计数据一致，表明欧元区经济正式走出衰退。数据还显示，与去年同期相比，第三季度欧元区和欧盟经济分别下降了</span><span lang="EN-US">4.1%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">和</span><span lang="EN-US">4.3%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">，但降幅较第二季度有所收窄。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">数据提示：北京时间</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">点加拿大公布失业率与就业人数变化，</span><span lang="EN-US">21</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">点</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">分美国平均时薪、失业率与最重要的非农就业人数变动，</span><span lang="EN-US">23</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">点美国发布耐用品订单月率。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">操作建议：最好保持观望，若入场可</span><span lang="EN-US">1200</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元短线做多，止损</span><span lang="EN-US">1195</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，目标</span><span lang="EN-US">1215</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元。</span></p>
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