[转帖]【金市达人】黄金加速上涨，切勿猜顶做空
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">昨日现货黄金开盘</span><span lang="EN-US">1196.65</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，最低</span><span lang="EN-US">1196.15</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，开盘后即开始了向上的冲击，</span><span lang="EN-US">1200</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元轻松被突破，最终收盘于</span><span lang="EN-US">1219.65</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元。一条几乎无上下影线的阳线实体表明了黄金强劲的势头，从上周五的低点至昨日，短短的</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">天内金价上涨接近</span><span lang="EN-US">100</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元。近期的大涨让投资者们逐渐开始考虑入场做空，认为金价正接近顶部，笔者并不建议这样的操作，目前仍然要选择以做多为主的思路，即使是短线的做空也是不建议的。金价上涨正处于加速阶段，距离牛市的终点尚有一段距离，本轮上涨中黄金在</span><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="8" month="9" year="2009"><span lang="EN-US">2009</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">第一次站上</span><span lang="EN-US">1000</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，在两个月后的</span><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="9" month="11" year="2009"><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">成功突破</span><span lang="EN-US">1100</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元关口，用时</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">个月零</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">天，那么冲击</span><span lang="EN-US">1200</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元用了多久呢？仅仅</span><span lang="EN-US">23</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">天，按照这样的速度，</span><span lang="EN-US">1300</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元本月将会被突破，金价不会一直加速上涨，但要认清的是，黄金的顶部回调在未有突发利空的前提下是很遥远的事情。</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">花旗投资研究和分析小组日前发布年度报告“</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">年经济和金融市场展望”，预计亚洲</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">除了日本</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">和美国</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">年将有一个相当强势的复苏；全球仍将维持低利率和低通胀。近期公布的</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">年经济展望都是十分乐观的，这对于市场信心具有积极的作用。美元指数昨日有所反弹，原油期货与美股均出现了下跌，黄金表现出了极强的独立性，各国政府特别是中国在黄金买入上的加大让黄金热度不减，实物买盘支撑着黄金的涨势。买入黄金的国家主要以出口大国为主，外汇储备中有大量的美元资产，美元在近期的低迷以及美元货币本身地位的下降使得这些国家纷纷开始调整外汇结构，抛售美元，购入黄金。这样的转换对美国来说有利有弊，美元走低能够促进出口，带动就业，减少政府赤字，但代价就是其货币地位的丧失，很可能失去的是掌控国际经济的能力。</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">数据提示：欧元区</span><span lang="EN-US">18</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">点公布</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">修正值与零售销售数据，</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">点</span><span lang="EN-US">45</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">分欧洲央行公布利率决议，美国</span><span lang="EN-US">21</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">点</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">分发布单位劳动力成本与非农生产力终值，同时发布上周初请失业金人数。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #333333; FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang="EN-US"> </span><b><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #333333; FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #333333; FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">操作建议：<span lang="EN-US">1215</span>美元做多，止损<span lang="EN-US">1206</span>美元，目标<span lang="EN-US">1230</span>美元，不建议做空。</span></b><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #333333; FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang="EN-US"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #333333; FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">成为我们的客户，可获更多即时建议，在线指导， </span></p>
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