[转帖]市场趋于理性，黄金仍处震荡整理
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">上周五尾盘的强势在本周一得到了延续，金价单日上涨</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，收盘</span><span lang="EN-US">1179.25</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">最低</span><span lang="EN-US">1163.20</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，最高</span><span lang="EN-US">1181.45</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，迪拜债务问题的影响远离黄金的速度同发作的速度不相上下，但昨日亚洲盘中依然出现了一波快速的回落，迪拜股市重新开市的补跌行情还是对市场形成了一定的冲击，但力度与时间均无法与上周五的回调相比，投资者理性了许多。黄金目前处于震荡整理之中，本周为金价重新确定方向的作用仍然值得关注。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">因宰牲节等节假日而在</span><span lang="EN-US">26</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">日至</span><span lang="EN-US">29</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">日休市的迪拜股市昨日恢复交易，开盘即重挫</span><span lang="EN-US">5.94%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">。当日股市领跌的是房地产、银行等板块。其中，阿联酋最大地产开发商埃玛尔地产公司股价下跌</span><span lang="EN-US">9.9%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">，创</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">个月来最大单日跌幅，评级机构标普和穆迪已下调其股票评级。阿联酋第二大银行阿布扎比国家银行股价下跌近</span><span lang="EN-US">10%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">，创</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">年来最大单日跌幅。该行对迪拜世界的风险敞口达</span><span lang="EN-US">3.45</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">亿美元。此外，迪拜世界旗下迪拜环球港务公司股价跌幅超过</span><span lang="EN-US">15%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">，创今年</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">月以来最大单日跌幅，但该公司已表示不在迪拜世界重组范围内；迪拜世界旗下棕榈岛地产公司当日停牌。如此惨烈的股市情况在市场预期的范围之内，这从原油的走势中可以看出，原油价格并没有如往常的股市下跌那样下挫，而是单日上涨</span><span lang="EN-US">1.02</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">桶，收盘</span><span lang="EN-US">77.35</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">桶，一直较低迷的原油期货首次在涨幅上与黄金相当，这也让市场的信心更加可信。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">“我们建议中国黄金储备在</span><span lang="EN-US">3~5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">年内达到</span><span lang="EN-US">6000</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">吨，在</span><span lang="EN-US">8~10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">年内可升至</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">万吨。”在</span><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="28" month="11" year="2009"><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US">28</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">举行的第三届中国产业安全论坛上，国务院国有重点大型企业监事会主席季晓南称，中国在优化外汇储备结构时应把黄金列为重点。此观点主要是针对目前美元的大幅贬值，中国外汇储备的缩水已经引起了广泛的关注，而黄金与美元的对应关系决定了持有黄金能够减少美元下跌的风险，这个建议很可能已经在实行，市场中的买盘肯定少不了中国这个新兴经济体，这是黄金强势的一个重要的支撑。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">操作建议：</span><span lang="EN-US">1180</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元做空，止损</span><span lang="EN-US">1186</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，目标</span><span lang="EN-US">1170</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元。</span></p>
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