[转帖]基本面再传利好，黄金涨势依旧
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">周二金价并没有继续创造新高，但黄金稳步上行的表现更加坚定了市场中多头的信心，昨日现货黄金开盘</span><span lang="EN-US">1161.10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，收盘</span><span lang="EN-US">1167.30</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，最高</span><span lang="EN-US">1170.75</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，回调仍然没有出现。本轮上涨的特点是虚实结合，如此长期的单边强势行情已经积累了大量的获利盘，但从目前的走势看，实物买入是本次上涨的主体，实物投资者区别于短线投机者的最大特征就在黄金买卖的周期上，实物投资者能够持有的时间相对较长，获利目标通常较高，而大量持有黄金的结果是市场中流通的黄金减少，金价上涨需要的买盘减少，交易量是较虚的。这一虚一实对投资者的交易并不是好事，基本面与技术面的影响都被缩小了，高价黄金带来的风险也增大了不少，目前的格局看，笔者认为中长线做空仍然是可行的。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">基本面上，最近伊朗展开了大规模的军事演习，尤其是防空的军事演习。其主要假想敌是以色列的空袭。同期伊朗内贾德开展</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">天的对外访问，为伊朗核权利拉选票。中东局势骤然紧张，黄金价格受到了较强的支撑。美联储周二公布的</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">月份会议纪要显示，美联储对可持续的经济复苏信心越来越强，他们在</span><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="3" month="11" year="2009"><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">日</span></st1:chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">和</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">日的货币政策会议上上调了对今明两年的经济增长预期，将</span><span lang="EN-US">09</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">预期从下降</span><span lang="EN-US">1.0</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">－</span><span lang="EN-US">1.5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">％调整为下降</span><span lang="EN-US">0.1</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">－</span><span lang="EN-US">0.4</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">％，将</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">年</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">增长预期从</span><span lang="EN-US">2.1</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">－</span><span lang="EN-US">3.3</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">％上调至</span><span lang="EN-US">2.5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">－</span><span lang="EN-US">3.5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">％。</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">的转好同样是对黄金的利好因素，商品市场整体上涨带动了黄金的上行，但这则消息的发布隐藏着美联储提前加息的预期，一旦出现相关的言论，利好很可能将转化为利空。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">全球最大的黄金</span><span lang="EN-US">ETF</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">——</span><span lang="EN-US">SPDR Gold Trust</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">最新公布的数据显示，截止</span><span lang="EN-US">24</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">日，黄金持有量为</span><span lang="EN-US">1123.37,</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">连续加仓较日前的</span><span lang="EN-US">1121.46</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">吨。，增加</span><span lang="EN-US">1.91</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">吨。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">操作建议：</span><span lang="EN-US">1170</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">位置的空单继续持有，止损</span><span lang="EN-US">1185</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，目前仍可入场做空，止损同样在</span><span lang="EN-US">1185</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'">美元，隔夜持有。</span></p>
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