[原创]2009年中国电网设备行业投资评价报告目录
<p class="a" style="MARGIN-LEFT: 9pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> 摘</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">要</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New="New"Roman'"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-layout-grid-align: none"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">电网设备指的是电能在传输、配售阶段所需要使用的设备。例如变压器、开关器、电容器、电感器、电力电缆和其他控制设备等等，而电网设备行业就是指生产这些设备的企业。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-layout-grid-align: none"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">电网设备行业作为国民经济的重要产业，其发展速度非常快，从资产总量上看，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">11</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">月已经接近了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">5400</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">亿元，相当于近年来一整年国内总产值的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">。就其资产增速来看，中国电力行业经历了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2004-2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">长达</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">5</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">年的较快增长时期，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">年资产增速和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2007</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">年相比略有回落，但是仍然在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">20%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">左右的水平。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-layout-grid-align: none"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">分公司来看，国内电网投资主体主要是国家电网和南方电网，国网公司</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2006-2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">3</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">年共完成电网投资约</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">6500</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">亿元左右，而</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">09-10</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">年将预计完成投资</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">7500</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">亿元左右，年均投资达到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">3700</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">亿元，“十一五”电网总投资规模将上升到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">1.4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">万亿。预计南方电网未来两年年投资额</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">900</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">亿元，比原规划的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">600</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">亿元上调</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">50%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">。预计“十一五”最后两年全国年电网投资额上升为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">4600</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">亿元左右，比原规划的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">3350</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">亿元上调了近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">40%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-layout-grid-align: none"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">从产量上看，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">年变压器、高压开关和电力电缆产量都大幅度上升，尤其是电力电缆增速超过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">60%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">。而低压开关板则产量下滑。这充分凸显了近两年来电网行业投资倾向于超高压和特高压的方向，这种倾向会更多的带动高压电网设备的发展，而对低压电网设备的发展则促进较少。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-layout-grid-align: none"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">电网设备行业的集中度相对要低得多，反映了这个行业接近自由竞争市场的特点。从数据上看，行业三强的收入份额接近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">6%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">的水平，资产和利润则超过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">7%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">的水平，分析资产份额最高的原因，容易得到三强的资金利用率一般的结论，从收入份额和利润份额的对比上看，三强的成本控制能力要远超过行业平均水平。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-layout-grid-align: none"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">在上游来看，电网设备制造行业处于相对被动地位，因为原材料和机械设备行业的竞争性比较强，价格波动不好掌握，而在下游方面，电网设备行业也处于比较弱势的地位，这主要是因为电网行业集中度高，电网设备行业的大客户实际上只有国家电网和南方电网两家。在下游设备采购是，电网公司通常采用招标形式，众多电网设备公司在竞争中处于不利地位。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-layout-grid-align: none"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">从历年电网设备行业的财务数据变化趋势来看，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">1-11</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">月的表现可以说没有受到任何影响，资产报酬率高达</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">3.91%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">的水平。负债率变动也不大，保持在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">67%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">左右的水平，基本上处于历年平均水平，亏损面有所增加，达到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">16%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">，但也在平均水平上下。利息保障倍数略有降低，达</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">7.86</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">倍，短期偿债情况正常。发展能力指标也比较乐观，各项指标均有一定程度的收缩，利润增速虽然有所降低，但是绝对值仍然很大，而且随着中国进入降息周期，行业的财务费用也会大幅度下降，行业的利润也将会更加具有吸引力。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-layout-grid-align: none"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">从销售利润率上来看，全国各个区域差异较大，华北地区表现最好，达到了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">10%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">以上的水平，西南地区其次，达到了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">8%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">以上的水平，华东和西北地区以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">7%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 楷体_GB2312">以上的水平位居第三。从抵抗经济危机的角度分析，抵抗能力最强的是西南地区和西北地区，正如在上述章节中的分析，这两个地区在经济危机中不降反升，表现出高出平均水平的稳定性。从回复敏感度和速度来看，华东和中南地区对经济变化趋势感受最为深刻，响应也会最快。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>2009年中国电网设备行业投资评价报告.rar ：down10_0430.asp?ID=131432<br/>
页:
[1]