[原创]保持童心与真实观察
<font face="宋体"><font size="3"> 很多年前，约翰-乃比斯特的《大趋势》影响了一代中国人，现在看来，书中讲到的很多事情已经成为或即将成为现实。据说，</font><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">奈斯比特撰写书</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">是一个工程。在大学找了几十</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">个<a href="javascript:;" target="_self"><u><strong><font color="#000066">大学生</font></strong></u></a>，分别阅读很多</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">个城市的日报，搜寻新发生的事件和故事，做成摘要，是为奈斯比特写书的第一道工作。第二道工序是由几个助手跟他一起讨论他阅读学生读报摘要的批注，形成一些基本判断。其后就是由他自己主刀完成全书的写作了。</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><br/></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">他自己说，</span><font face="宋体"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">“</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">我有一双童真的眼睛</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">。他解释说，他不是经济学家、不是哲学家、不是金融专家，没有任何成见，他只对一刻接一刻的新发生感兴趣。很多人对许多事情熟视无睹，</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">他像孩童一样的天真无邪，没有任何传统和成见的负担，当然能看到别人看不到的东西。</span></font></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><br/></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> 观察一个现象，最忌讳先入为主。你已经有一大堆理论、判断、逻辑和经验了，你还怎么去把握那一刻接一刻的真实？比如，观察</span><font face="宋体"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">30</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">年改革巨变，是从源头一点点梳理更容易得出切合实际的判断呢，还是从今天反观</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">30</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">年更准确呢？奈斯比特当属后者。从现实反观历史，便可以从整体上把握大致脉络。而从历史一点点追溯，反而容易迷失在历史的丛林之中。 </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> 多年来，奈斯比特以一双</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">“</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">童真的眼睛</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">省察现实，把握一刻接一刻的真实，而从来不顾忌现有的理论或官方权威的信息，于是常常能得出与众不同的结论。他还喜欢借助</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">“</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">新闻眼</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">来看世象。一张报纸的版面很金贵，许多东西都要上。无限的信息，有限的版面，能挤进热点版面，大多是对社会有重要意义的事件。观察者对这些经过选裁的事件不带偏见地觉知，就可以洞悉一个地方一刻接一刻的真实，也就容易把握这个地方的未来趋势了。</span></font></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><br/></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> 看到这里，自己很受启发，我们太多时候是靠自己的成见、偏见、本能接触、了解事物，我们的心灵被很多事物、很多教条、很多不合适的东西蒙蔽，还没有深入了解，就已经有了结论，这种结论也会主导随后的观察、了解。</span></font> <p>保持清新，保持不为外界所动的心态是很重要的。</p><p>童心代表了敢于创新，敢于思考。人大了，往往被自己的经验束缚了。</p>
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