不确定性中引领前行（二）
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">更加灵活</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">17HR </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;">人力资源网</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US"> ^ h<span style=""><!---->
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<span style="display: none;">(o*l4p-fp6\</span> <span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">现在，企业必须采取一种更为灵活的规划方法：每家企业应当针对多种发展方向制定多套统一的战略行动方案，而不是只拿出一套方案。每套方案都应当调动企业内所有职能部门、业务单元和各地的分公司的积极性，并说明如何充分利用特定的经济环境。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">企业高管不能将这些方案看成是某种学术实践活动，而必须做好准备，以便在未来前景明朗时，迅速实施其中的某一套方案。实际上，如今的商业环境中存在着范围广泛的可能结果，这要求企业高管在制定战略、承担风险和分配资源时采取一种</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">及时</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">的方法。例如，一家拥有</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">至</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">名高级管理人员的公司，可以每周甚至每天召开全体负责人会议，以便交流信息和迅速做出运营决策。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style="display: none;">KNup*MDxu</span> <span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">更高的灵活性还意味着能够制定出尽可能多的可选方案，供发生某些转折性事件或未来更趋明朗化时采用。通常，可选方案将由一些积极的行动组成。比如，什么样的收购更具有吸引力，应当遵守哪些条款，需要多少资金和怎样的管理能力才能完成收购？哪些新产品能够最有效地适应不同情景的需求？如果一家或更多的主要竞争者运转不灵，企业将如何应对？企业可以在哪些市场中扩大份额？</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">17HR </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;">人力资源网</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">s*VN3]a]?U</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style=""> </span><span style="display: none;">qKa%y(?(E</span> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">当企业为这些机会做准备时，它们应当制定多套可选方案，以便在不同的困难环境中都能够保持良好的运营状态。例如，如果资本市场的崩溃使得全球融资来源变得风险过大，某些企业通过快速重组自身供应链等措施将能够处于更加有利的运营状态。如果全球经济的变化可能使某些类型的业务单元过时，那么，必须在所有企业都意识到这一点之前，抢先做好准备工作，售出相关资产。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style="display: none;">V)g"AxC1`v</span> <span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">一场危机往往会催生企业以前通常不会考虑的可选方案，例如，如何在尽量不影响长期竞争力的同时削减结构成本。除非高管提早对可选方案做出评估，否则，他们只能事后才发现自己是在缺乏信息和准备的情况下艰难前行，结果不是决策漏洞百出，就是反应过慢，甚至会将可选方案完全抛在脑后，自行其是。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">17HR </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;">人力资源网</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">8H @%Sb{</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">信贷问题打碎了原有的商业模式，但同时也建立了新的商业模式，而市场的波动性则令估值工作难以进行。在这种情况下，企业迫切需要了解其收入、成本、利润、现金流、风险和资产负债表在不同情景中都会有什么样的表现。在掌握这些信息之后，企业的高管在期望出现最好情况的同时，也能做好最坏的打算。例如，如果经济衰退持续的时间超过</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">年，企业是否能够生存？企业是否已经对主要客户的破产有所准备？企业是否能够迅速将资本开支缩减一半？这些问题的答案可以帮助企业更好地做好准备，并尽早发现目前正在按哪一种情景发展。这些知识在危机中有着非常重要的价值，因为，准备的时机稍纵即逝，企业只有抢在可能性相当大的结果变得尽人皆知之前做出反应，才能赢得主动。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">17HR </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;">人力资源网</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">vi-Tq<span style=""><!---->
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<span style=""> </span><span style="display: none;">9uT%MZOM</span> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">更完整的商业情报也能加快决策并使其更有成效。通过研究关于竞争对手活动的新闻报道、库存分析报告，以及在与客户和供应商交流时收集的专有信息，企业往往可以深入地了解竞争对手可能采取的行动。这类情报在任何时候都很重要。当危机来临之时，它们可以帮助企业避免错失低价收购资产的良机，果断出击，将这些被低估的资产收入囊中。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">17HR </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;">人力资源网</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">D{-qR/L</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"><br>
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H{</span> <span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">为了获得这类商业情报，企业需要一个网络，这项工作通常由得到最高层有力支持的人员领导。该高管的职权应当包括设立跨业务和地区的信息</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">耳目</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">，进行信息的收集和交流，一些热点领域（例如竞争对手对于危机的反应）更是重中之重。这样的网络之所以重要的原因是，如果企业内的信息不仅在上下级间进行纵向流动，而且也在同级之间横向流动，就能够发挥最大的效能。例如，网络中的销售人员应当就经济低迷地区的有效销售技巧展开交流，实现员工互助。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style="display: none;">3Z6ySJ,^e\|</span> <span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">将点点滴滴的信息、事实和传闻汇集起来，有助于企业了解行业动态。例如，某家供应商说自己在资金方面并无困难，但来自其他来源的第一手资料却显示，该企业正在为支付员工工资大伤脑筋。通过这类警告，高管们可以比坐在办公室里等直接下属汇报更快地了解到完整的情况。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">17HR </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;">人力资源网</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">0qp h#B`-Y.Z-}</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style=""> </span><span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">例如，如果要打破被花样翻新的特殊重叠所掩饰的垂直组织结构，这种结构妨碍着大大小小各种规模的企业，眼下可能正当其时。在垂直组织结构中，往往有几位相互竞争的主管共同指导同一批专业人员，令后者不堪重负。内部冲突和含糊不清的决策是普遍现象。产品、销售和地区管理人员之间的明争暗斗扼杀了许多本来很有希望的项目信息搜集效率低下，大量的时间浪费在毫无意义的电子邮件、电话和会议之中。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">17HR </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;">人力资源网</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">G+P-^ O`'ry3q%^</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">经验显示，通过简化组织结构来定义人员角色以及这些角色相互间的协作方式，可以极大地改善企业的工作成效和决策。如果必须取消一些职位，应当尽量裁掉生产效率不高却又相当复杂的工作，而不是将有价值的工作作为精简对象。正如</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"> Matthew
Guthridge</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">、</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US">John R.
McPherson </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">和</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"> William J.
Wolf </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">在</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">《人才升级》一文中所介绍的那样，思科公司用这种方法在</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US">2001</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">年裁减了</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US">8,500</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">个职位。如果企业通过重新设计角色和职责来改善各职能的运营和减少重复工作，就能为有才华的员工提供一个更富有协作氛围的工作场所，提高他们的满意度。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">17HR </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;">人力资源网</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">1{u<span style=""><!----><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US"></span><!----></span>D<span style=""><!----><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US"></span><!----></span>x<span style=""><!---->
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<span style="display: none;">s/Jg7e5YXcX</span> <span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">事实上，许多职能部门都提供了巨大的机会：提高效能、降低固定成本、释放资金，减少风险。在这个时候，可以重新定义</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"> IT </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">的用途，重新安排轻重缓急，以增强</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"> IT </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">的影响，降低</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"> IT </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">成本。其他企业可以籍此时机，控制库存、重新审查包括应付款和应收账款在内的现金流管理；或者改变营销工具和销售模式的组合，以应对传统媒体日益升高的成本和利用新兴媒体越来越高的效能</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style="display: none;">/Av#[kF</span> <span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">在未来两年中，客户偏好会发生变化，许多竞争对手将遭遇困难，收购低估值资产的良机将会浮现，而政府的职能也将从控制危机转向刺激经济增长。在未来一到两年当中，一些企业可能会落伍，另一些则可能成为领导者，新的行业发展规律也许会由此产生。如果高管能够保持冷静，审慎地评估自己的选择，培育企业的灵活性、敏锐性和弹性，从容应对周围环境的任何变化，未来必将属于他们的企业。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">17HR </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;">人力资源网</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none;" lang="EN-US">0Qy)~Q.z!Q</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style="display: none;">uN7Y'g#dT#gs9D'{j</span> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">附文：<span style="font-weight: bold;">信贷紧缩与实体经济</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" lang="EN-US"><br>
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</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">从</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">2007</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年中到</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年中，发生了一件不寻常的事：美国家庭和企业的新增净借贷额大幅度下降了</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">65%</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">（</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">1.4</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">万亿美元）。这种下降逆转了最近几年的趋势。在过去</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年中，借贷额每年都以</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">2.4%</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">的速度增长，比</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">1970</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年至</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">2000</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年期间</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">0.9%</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">的增长速度快得多。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none; font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">17HR </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none; font-style: italic;">人力资源网</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none; font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">|0m Z+D%Y-pK</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style="display: none;">o mC_sB4f</span> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">信贷增长总是与更高的</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">增长速度息息相关：消费者的借贷促进了房屋、汽车、家用电器等产品的销售；而企业则发行债券来为新的工厂和建设项目融资。因此，去杠杆化将对实体经济产生巨大影响。为了理解这一影响，我们从家庭和企业获得信贷的</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">种渠道入手，分别评估未来两年内每种渠道提供的后续借贷可能呈现的下降量，然后建立模型，以计算出美国</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"> GDP </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">增长率因此而下降的幅度。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style="display: none;">+E SiQ Ugz"x</span> 1. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">银行贷款：美国的银行仍然在对信贷损失进行销账，有许多类型的贷款都出现了越来越多的违约。麦肯锡的分析显示，美国贷款所造成的信贷损失总额可能达到了</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">1.4</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">万亿</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">~2.2</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">万亿美元，正在不断侵蚀银行的股本</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">。虽然政府和私人投资者已经向银行注入了更多的新资本，但信贷紧缩仍将继续一段时间。在考虑了账目资本机构调整、银行杠杆率降低以及税务因素之后，我们根据趋势计算出未来两年银行向美国家庭和企业的贷款额可能下降</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">1.9</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">万亿</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">~3.5</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">万美元。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"><br>
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2. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">非银行中介机构贷款：企业还从养老基金、保险公司和政府贷款。这一规模达</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">1.7</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">万亿美元的信贷来源已近枯竭。我们认为，在自身的投资组合遭受惨痛损失后，这些中介机构将进行重组，而财源枯竭的趋势仍将在未来两年中继续。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style="display: none;">HS^`X/o9g5w</span> 3. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">持有由政府保荐型企业所担保和拥有的债券，例如，房利美</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"> (Fannie
Mae) </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">和房地美</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"> (Freddie
Mac)</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">：在发放给美国家庭的贷款中，这些巨型实体所占份额接近</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">40%</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">（</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年第二季度为</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">5.1</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">万亿美元）。在这场危机中，这是唯一一个增加贷款的渠道，在一定程度上，它缓解了私营行业信贷量减少的影响。我们认为，这种反周期性贷款活动仍将继续，从而部分抵消其他渠道的信贷量减少的影响。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none; font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">17HR </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none; font-style: italic;">人力资源网</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none; font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">G Ld}7U Y(H</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style="display: none;">h-iL%y^[ f</span> 4. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">企业债券和商业票据市场：以债券或商业票据形式在债务资本市场上筹得资金，是企业融资的一个主要来源，仅次于银行贷款。虽然投资级非金融企业票据的发行量只出现了轻微下滑，但高收益债券的发行量下降速度却快得多。根据我们的模型，未来几个季度的债券发行量将继续下降，由两种不同经济衰退情景得出的发行量反弹时间分别是</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">2009</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年和</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none; font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">17HR </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none; font-style: italic;">人力资源网</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none; font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">&O:S%l"@yJ4I</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"><br>
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5. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">证券市场：在危机时期，以房贷、消费者债务和商业贷款作抵押从私人贷款提供者手中筹措资金的数量已经大幅度下降。我们认为，在去杠杆化力度最强的情景中，只有普通形式的证券化才会出现反弹，而某些较为少见的结构化产品则不然。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<!----></span>mGs Km]6k</span> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">将这</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">种渠道的信贷减少量相加，我们估算出美国家庭和企业的贷款额将在未来两年中进一步缩减</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">1.6</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">万亿</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">~3.7</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">万亿美元，具体取决于信贷损失规模和资本市场恢复速度。美国经济增长速度可能会因此而大大放缓（图表）。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none; font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">17HR </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none; font-style: italic;">人力资源网</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none; font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">2i'hd |#V<span style=""><!----><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); display: none; font-weight: bold;" lang="EN-US"></span><!----></span>C!l</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<!----></span>^U3@r,UI$jG</span> <span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">信贷额减少</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">1.6</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">万亿，意味着在未来两年中，美国实际的</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"> GDP </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">增长率将比原先的增长趋势低</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">2.9%</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">，这低于</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">世纪</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">80</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年代美国储蓄和贷款危机之后出现的</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"> GDP </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">增长率下滑幅度。而如果信贷额减少</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">2.6</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">万亿，信贷损失将从抵押房贷蔓延到信用卡、汽车贷款以及其他形式的消费者负债，信贷市场的紧缩状态将延续到</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"> 2009</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年第</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">季度。截至</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年中期，</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">GDP </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">较原先趋势的最终累积下降幅度将达</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">4.7%</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">。这将是美国自</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">1981</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年以来最严重的一次经济衰退，比芬兰、瑞典和英国等其他发达国家的金融危机后果更糟糕。最终，随着企业利润和房产价格的持续下降，银行和紧缩的信贷市场将蒙受更为惨痛的损失，</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年中预计</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">3.7</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">万亿美元的信贷削减额就反映了这一点。到</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"> 2010</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">年中，</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">较趋势的累积下降幅度将为</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">6.7%</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">这些情景中的每一种情况都建立在多种假设的基础上，为我们提供了抱有希望或为之忧虑的理由。例如，如果政府采取的积极应对政策能够奏效，实际的</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"> GDP </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">损失有望降低。相反，另外一些情况会使结果更为恶化，例如：如果国民的家庭财富意外出现大面积缩水，导致消费者开支一落千丈；如果美国企业的信心受到侵蚀的速度和程度比前几次衰退更甚；如果银行和其他借款企业在很长时间内依然无法利用证券市场融资；如果全球资本市场难以恢复正常；或者经济不景气引起保护主义回潮，导致全球化进程陷入歧途。</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US"><br>
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<span style="display: none;">t.}U%C:ba!} R</span> <span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">在诸多可能性中，最坏的情况只会发生在决策者和企业领导者犯下严重错误的时候，这样的错误造成了日本</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">失去的十年</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">（</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">GDP </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">增长率陡降</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">18</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">个百分点）和大萧条（其间</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">较原有趋势累积损失近</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;" lang="EN-US">40</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic;">个百分点）。如今，政府和企业领导者的头号任务就是避免重蹈覆辙。</span></p>
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