[原创]危机下工程机械行业夹缝中求生
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">文章来源:北京西杰优盛管理咨询有限公司</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">在新的经济形式下，西杰优盛分析，虽然工程机械行业遭受危机，并且行业受上游原材料与进口零部件制约影响较大，但工程机械行业细分领域遭受危机影响不一，总体依然看好。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21.1pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">一、</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">工程机械</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">未来需求增长空间充足</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">工程机械相关的基建项目，主要是道路、铁路、城市公交、水利、水运、航空六方面的投资，每年的总投资额大约为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1.3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">万亿元，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">08</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年增量大约为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1600</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">09</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年全球建筑业市场发展主要靠新兴经济体的增长，新兴地区建筑业投资增速将是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">08</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">78.7%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右。估算中国整机产品出口的增速在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">64.5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右。西杰优盛预测预测，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">09</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年房地产、基建、采矿三大类投资贡献增量占比分别为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">53%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">35%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">13%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">，带动的工程机械国内总需求</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">含进口</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">约为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1119</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元，增速为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">-9.9%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">固定资产投资过于庞杂并不能很精确地衡量工程机械需求状况。直接带动工程机械采购的是房地产、采矿业、基建三项投资。铁路投资是带动增长最大的一项，相当于水利、城市公交和道路投资的两倍。采矿业除石油天然气开采投资，其他几部分的投资总额在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">3000</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元左右，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">08</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年增量在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1200</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元左右。整体增长迅速，以煤炭投资增量最大。房地产投资扣除土地购置费后，每年的总额为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">万亿元左右，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">08</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年的增量是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">5900</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元。中部、东北、内陆三地区增量贡献是沿海、长三角两地区的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1.6</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">倍，广大的内陆省份支撑了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">08</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年的增长。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">四季度需求有回暖迹象。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">8</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">月，房地产投资增速虽有下滑，但采矿业和基建投资增速仍然坚挺。新开工计划投资额增长由负转正，新开工和施工项目个数增速大幅反弹，环比增速高达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">28.8%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">16.5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。建筑业投资累计增速也再次转正，主要工程机械产品的销量增速有回升迹象。水泥产量增速整体虽继续回落，但已经有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">15</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">个省的水泥增速开始回升。尽管我们认为需求反转要等到房地产政策放松以后，但在目前的政策和市场背景下，需求回暖的趋势很可能会持续下去，工程机械是反弹中不错的投资选择。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">西杰优盛预测，明年房地产、基建、采矿三大类投资贡献增量占比分别为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">53%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">35%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">13%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">，带动的工程机械国内总需求</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">含进口</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">约为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1119</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元，增速为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">-9.9%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">09</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年如果进口负增长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">15-20%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">，国内厂商内销的降幅仅为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">5.2-7.5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">09</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年全球建筑业市场发展主要靠新兴经济体的增长，新兴地区建筑业投资增速将是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">08</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">78.7%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右。估算中国整机产品出口的增速在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">64.5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右。中长期看，中东、东欧、拉美地区区域规模都远大于中国市场，只要新兴市场开拓顺利，国内产品就有足够的增长空间。按</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">50%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">出口占比测算全行业销售额增长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">23%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">，按</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">25%-30%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右占比测算的增速是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">8%-10.8%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。只有很少几种情况下才会出现整体负增长，并且幅度不会超过</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">6%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。主要龙头公司的销售增速应该在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">12.5-15%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">文章来源:北京西杰优盛管理咨询有限公司</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">在新的经济形式下，西杰优盛分析，虽然工程机械行业遭受危机，并且行业受上游原材料与进口零部件制约影响较大，但工程机械行业细分领域遭受危机影响不一，总体依然看好。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21.1pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">一、</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">工程机械</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">未来需求增长空间充足</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">工程机械相关的基建项目，主要是道路、铁路、城市公交、水利、水运、航空六方面的投资，每年的总投资额大约为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1.3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">万亿元，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">08</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年增量大约为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1600</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">09</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年全球建筑业市场发展主要靠新兴经济体的增长，新兴地区建筑业投资增速将是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">08</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">78.7%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右。估算中国整机产品出口的增速在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">64.5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右。西杰优盛预测预测，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">09</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年房地产、基建、采矿三大类投资贡献增量占比分别为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">53%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">35%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">13%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">，带动的工程机械国内总需求</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">含进口</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">约为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1119</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元，增速为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">-9.9%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">固定资产投资过于庞杂并不能很精确地衡量工程机械需求状况。直接带动工程机械采购的是房地产、采矿业、基建三项投资。铁路投资是带动增长最大的一项，相当于水利、城市公交和道路投资的两倍。采矿业除石油天然气开采投资，其他几部分的投资总额在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">3000</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元左右，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">08</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年增量在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1200</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元左右。整体增长迅速，以煤炭投资增量最大。房地产投资扣除土地购置费后，每年的总额为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">万亿元左右，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">08</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年的增量是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">5900</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元。中部、东北、内陆三地区增量贡献是沿海、长三角两地区的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1.6</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">倍，广大的内陆省份支撑了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">08</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年的增长。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">四季度需求有回暖迹象。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">8</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">月，房地产投资增速虽有下滑，但采矿业和基建投资增速仍然坚挺。新开工计划投资额增长由负转正，新开工和施工项目个数增速大幅反弹，环比增速高达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">28.8%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">16.5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。建筑业投资累计增速也再次转正，主要工程机械产品的销量增速有回升迹象。水泥产量增速整体虽继续回落，但已经有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">15</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">个省的水泥增速开始回升。尽管我们认为需求反转要等到房地产政策放松以后，但在目前的政策和市场背景下，需求回暖的趋势很可能会持续下去，工程机械是反弹中不错的投资选择。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">西杰优盛预测，明年房地产、基建、采矿三大类投资贡献增量占比分别为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">53%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">35%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">13%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">，带动的工程机械国内总需求</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">含进口</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">约为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1119</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元，增速为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">-9.9%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">09</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年如果进口负增长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">15-20%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">，国内厂商内销的降幅仅为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">5.2-7.5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">09</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年全球建筑业市场发展主要靠新兴经济体的增长，新兴地区建筑业投资增速将是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">08</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">78.7%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右。估算中国整机产品出口的增速在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">64.5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右。中长期看，中东、东欧、拉美地区区域规模都远大于中国市场，只要新兴市场开拓顺利，国内产品就有足够的增长空间。按</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">50%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">出口占比测算全行业销售额增长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">23%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">，按</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">25%-30%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右占比测算的增速是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">8%-10.8%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。只有很少几种情况下才会出现整体负增长，并且幅度不会超过</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">6%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。主要龙头公司的销售增速应该在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">12.5-15%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右。</span></p>
页:
[1]