[转帖]2008年零部件市场依旧辉煌
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 20.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 1.99; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">文章来源:西杰优盛研究中心</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 20.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 1.99; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><a href="http://www.c-gwin.com/">http://www.c-gwin.com/</a><br/>西杰优盛行业研究部<br/>联系人：杨小姐 <br/>Email: <a href="mailto:info@c-gconsultancy.com">info@c-gconsultancy.com</a><br/>联系电话：010-84287219 010-84270561<br/>QQ：352474492</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 20.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 1.99; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face=""></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 20.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 1.99; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年在国际金融风暴以及国内诸多不利因素影响下，虽然零部件行业收入与利润增速下降，零部件出口受到冲击，中国在贸易争端中首败，但国内汽车行业资产重组依旧值得期待，上汽集团完成构建汽车帝国的雏形使巴士股份将成为中国规模最大的汽车零部件上市公司。综观全年，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年零部件市场依旧辉煌。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><h2 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 0cm; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-list: none; tab-stops: 21.0pt;"><a name="_Toc209345759"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">热点一：</span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc209345759;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2008</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc209345759;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">年汽车零部件行业</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">市场趋势</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><p></p></span></h2><h3 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 12pt 10.5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-para-margin-top: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="">1</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">、零部件行业收入与利润增速下降</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><p></p></span></h3><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 20.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 1.99; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">收入与利润增速下降。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年上半年汽车零部件上市公司实现营业收入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">489</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元，同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">25.03</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％；实现净利润</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">18</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元，同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">9.45</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％，显著低于营业收入增速。汽车整车销售的景气下滑影响了零部件行业的增长，一方面国内汽车产量同比增速出现下降，另一方面人民币计价的汽车零部件出口增速也出现下滑。原材料价格上涨压缩毛利空间受通货膨胀影响，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年以来汽车零部件上游原材料价格持续上升。主要原材料中，钢铁综合价格同比上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">44</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％，进口天然橡胶价格上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">29</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％，塑料价格上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">-24</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％不等，其他原材料也有较大上涨。受此影响，上市公司毛利率持续下滑。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年上半年毛利率为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">14.81</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％，同比下滑</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">0.56</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">个百分点。二级市场表现不佳由于较强的周期性，汽车零部件行业上市公司的股价波动性明显高于市场水平。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">-2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">8</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">月，汽车零部件行业指数累计下跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">66.66</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％，高于同期沪深</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">300</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">指数的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">55.87%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><h3 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 12pt 10.5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-para-margin-top: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="">2</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">、西杰优盛分析：零部件企业成本压力有所缓解</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><p></p></span></h3><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 20.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 1.99; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">下半年需求增速和成本双下降使下半年乘用车产销可能会出现半数以上的月度同比负增长，如此全年同比增长会降至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">6-8</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％，即使再乐观也难以超过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">10</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％。同样，国外汽车产销形势也不容乐观。在这种形势下，汽车零部件产销增速继续下滑已经难以避免。从汽车原材料来看，近期价格保持稳定或有所回落，预计未来将保持稳定下行态势。因此对于汽车零部件行业来说，成本压力无疑将有所缓解，未来将保持较好的发展。增值税转型影响不大总体上可以认为增值税转型对当期净利润影响不大，对经营性现金流净额有一定影响。如果公司未来持续新增机器设备，由于对净利润的影响在未来几年分期发生，因此未来几年的累计效应是较大的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p> <h2 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 0cm; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-list: none; tab-stops: 21.0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">热点二：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="Arial">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">年中国零部件出口市场趋势</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><p></p></span></h2><h3 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 12pt 10.5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-para-margin-top: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="">1</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">、零部件出口受到冲击</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><p></p></span></h3><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 20.9pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 1.99; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">受国内外经济运行中一系列不确定因素影响，我国总需求的强劲扩张势头开始减弱，国民经济运行态势由过去五年加速增长转为周期性回落，预计</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年我国经济增速将从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">11.9%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">回落到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">10.5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右。今年年初以来，全球经济增长减慢，石油、粮食等初级产品价格持续上涨，我国经济运行的外部环境面临较大的不确定性。国内经济增长有所放缓，物价上涨压力较大，冰雪灾害和特大地震，给人民生命财产造成重大损失，也给经济运行增加了新的不确定因素。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">受全球经济危机需求缩减、人民币升值、零部件国际争端的败诉、市场竞争加剧等影响，中国零配件出口已经面临重重危机，已经明显放缓。全球范围内的金融危机影响正进一步扩大，汽车业首当其冲，目前，包括通用、丰田、福特等在内的巨头均已调低了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">财年的盈利目标，仅</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">月美国销量平均下滑</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">26%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">，创</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">50</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年来最大跌幅。零部件出口从类型上可分为出口配套市场和出口售后市场两大类，很明显国际配套市场的总需求在下降，恢复到年初的水平可能还需要</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年的时间，因此，已经参与国际配套的供应商可能会面临已计划的订单量实施时减少的情况。</span></p><h3 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 12pt 10.5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-para-margin-top: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="">2</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">、西杰优盛分析：零部件出口不会难以为续</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><p></p></span></h3><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">在众多危机并发的背景下，行业新一轮的洗牌看来不可避免。不过，跨国公司从中国进行配套方面的采购才刚刚开始，当这些公司在本土市场面临更激烈竞争的时候，为降低成本，只要人民币升值不加速，扩大到中国来采购的零部件品类的可能性很大，也就意味着配套出口增长的潜力仍然巨大。近期，欧美配套买家发布询单频率显著增多就是一个佐证。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">售后市场的需求降低相对于配套市场而言要小很多，上半年美国售后市场的需求还保持了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">5%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">左右的增长，很大程度上因为很多人节省开支不买新车而维修旧车的结果。而更多的欧美的消费者可能在此时期愿意选择价格更有竞争力的中国产品，这也许对中国的企业来讲意味着更多的机会。总之，对于大多数中国本土零部件公司而言，国际市场总需求因金融危机而下降对出口的影响程度，要小于人民币快速升值对出口的影响。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">进退两难的海外汽配市场，国内企业普遍陷入迷茫之中，对此，危机从另一个角度来也是新的生机，目前汽配企业更应该主动出击接触买家，切实地帮助买家降低采购成本，共同进退才能创造双赢。配套市场采购周期往往达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1-2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年之久，售后市场采购周期至少也要半年，因此真正供货可能是半年甚至是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年后的事，那时也许危机已过，但在现在这个困难时主动向买家伸橄榄枝，毫无疑问是开发新买家的最好时机。</span></p> <h2 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 0cm; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-list: none; tab-stops: 21.0pt;"><a name="_Toc209345765"></a><a name="_Toc207531155"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc209345765;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">热点三：</span></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc207531155;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc209345765;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="Arial">2008</font></span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc207531155;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc209345765;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">年中国零部件</span></span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">贸易争端</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><p></p></span></h2><h3 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 12pt 10.5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-para-margin-top: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd;"><a name="_Toc207531156"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="">1</font></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc207531156;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">、中国在贸易争端中首败</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc207531156;"></span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><p></p></span></h3><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">世界贸易组织</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">(WTO)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">再次判定中国汽车零部件进口政策违反相关贸易规则。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">7</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">18</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">日，世界贸易组织争端解决机构专家组公布的“关于中国与美国、欧盟和加拿大三方汽车零部件争端的裁决报告”认为，中国对超过整车</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">60%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">以上的进口零部件按整车征税的做法，对进口汽车零部件构成歧视，违反相关贸易规则。此裁决结果与今年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">月该机构发布的初步调查结果内容一致。中国与美国、欧盟和加拿大三方汽车零部件的争端，起因于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2005</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">4</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">日中国实施《构成整车特征的汽车零部件进口管理办法》</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">下称《办法》</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">，规定对等于或超过整车价值</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">60%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">的零部件征收与整车相同的关税</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">(28%)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">，而不是中国加入</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">WTO</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">协议中规定的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">10%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">14%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">的税率。美国、欧盟及加拿大认为，该规定使得汽车零部件生产企业将生产地转移至中国，欧美相关行业将受到冲击。而中国商务部官员曾公开表示，中国的汽车零部件进口管理规定是为了防止不法分子利用整车和零部件的税差规避海关监督、偷逃关税的行为，也是打击非法拼装、保护消费者利益的措施。今年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">月，世界贸易组织首次裁定中国违反贸易规则。中国方面进行了上诉。这是中国</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2001</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年加入</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">WTO</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">以来，首次在贸易争端中败诉。</span></p><h3 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 12pt 10.5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-para-margin-top: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="">2</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">、西杰优盛分析：零部件市场发展不会受阻</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><p></p></span></h3><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">西杰优盛认为，败诉对于中国零部件企业向高端发展添置了一些障碍，但是，对中国汽车零部件产业格局与国产化趋势影响不大。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><a name="_Toc207531158"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">国内汽车零部件生产格局不会改变</span></a><font face=""></font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。从表面上看，败诉降低了中国进口汽车零部件的成本，也对国内供应商构成了竞争威胁。但是，在汽车工业以及大多数其他工业，利用进口产品或大量采用进口零部件的产品在中国市场上占据竞争优势是一件几乎不可能完成的任务。即便在零关税的情况下，高成本国家生产的零部件或产品在中国市场上的价格也要高出大多数中国本地产品。采用中国尚未掌握的独特技术生产的产品或零部件可能会在一段时间内享有高价优势。但是我相信，此类产品或零部件终将被中国本地生产且价格低得多的产品或零部件所取代。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">汽车产业链的对华转移路径未改变。败诉将使大量国外汽车企业新车型，特别是一些高端品牌，借助可能发生的进口零部件低关税组装杀入国内市场，从而对合资和本土品牌汽车整车和零部件的自主创新和品牌发展产生影响。不过，仔细分析近年来汽车产业链的对华转移路径，可以发现，随着国际整车生产巨头的大举进入中国，为其配套的零部件企业“国产化”，已经成为未来方向。在华合资汽车厂商，面对上游原材料价格高企、下游消费乏力、中游激烈价格战的困境，选择国产零部件乃是理性之举和生存之举。国内零部件不仅服务中国，还正在受益全球外包趋势，目前全球</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">70</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％的外包业务已经选定中国。对整车企业来说，由于国内大多数主机厂早已达到了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">40</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％的国产化率，较早进入中国的广州本田以及大众汽车等的国产化率更是已经超过了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">80</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％，部分厂家车型的国产化率甚至超过</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">90</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">％。大部分合资品牌从降低成本的角度考虑，大规模培育了本地零部件的供应能力，因此对国内整车市场的影响不大。</span></p> <h2 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 0cm; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-list: none; tab-stops: 21.0pt;"><a name="_Toc212280942"></a><a name="_Toc212278144"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc212280942;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">热点四：</span></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc212278144;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc212280942;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="Arial">2008</font></span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc212278144;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc212280942;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">年中国零部件资产重组</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc212280942;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Toc212278144;"></span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><p></p></span></h2><h3 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 12pt 10.5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-para-margin-top: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="">1</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">、上汽集团完成构建汽车帝国的雏形</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><p></p></span></h3><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">一个多月前，巴士股份的重大资产重组方案在历经一年多后，终于获得上海市国资委批准和股东大会通过，此时已上报证监会等待审核批准。实际上，在上海国资重新整合的背景下，上汽集团已经完成构建汽车帝国的雏形——三驾马车齐驱——上海汽车主要生产整车、上柴股份主要生产发动机、巴士股份则致力于汽车零部件的生产。长期而言，上汽集团的发展肯定是值得期待的。不过，在目前整个汽车行业不景气的情况下，短期内如何保证公司利润增长、甚至避免下滑，以及更细层面上整合的效果都需要时间来检验。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">根据</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">日股东大会最终通过的方案：久事公司、交投集团以及申能集团将所持有的合计</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">4418.05</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">万股公司股权（占公司股权比例</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">30.003%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">）无偿转给上汽集团。巴士股份则将除民生银行、兴业银行股权之外的资产和负债出售给久事公司，该资产的预估价值为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">24.539</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿元。此后，巴士股份向上汽集团发行股份，购买上汽集团所拥有的独立供应汽车零部件业务，发行</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">11.1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">亿股，发行价</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">7.67</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">/</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">股。发行完成后，上汽集团持有巴士股份</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">60.10%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">股权。此外，按本次发行后总股本及公司模拟备考合并财务报表归属于母公司净利润计算，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">1-5</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">月，公司每股收益分别为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">0.445</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">元、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">0.24</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">元，较交易前分别增长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">162%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">699%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">。</span></p><h3 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 12pt 10.5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-para-margin-top: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="">2</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">、西杰优盛分析：巴士股份将成为中国规模最大的汽车零部件上市公司</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><p></p></span></h3><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">根据规划，上述一系列资产运作完成之后，巴士股份将实现主营业务的战略转型，即由前期的公交客运、出租车客运、长途车客运服务以及物流租赁等业务，向独立供应汽车零部件研发、生产以及销售等业务转型。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">完成重组交易后，巴士股份将成为中国</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">A</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">股市场规模最大的独立供应汽车零部件上市公司。巴士股份将拥有世界</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">500</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">强企业上汽集团旗下成熟的独立供应汽车零部件业务，包括内外饰件、功能性总成件和热加工三大板块，无论是资产规模还是盈利能力都优于原有资产。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">股东权益也得到了维护。其一，公司原有主营业务以公益性为主，而参考国际经验以及上海乃至全国公共交通发展规划，这一部分不以营利为主要目的，这与上市公司以及股东的根本利益不符。其二，受油价上涨，人工成本提高、轨道交通大幅度扩容以及优惠乘车等因素影响，公司收益率和毛利率出现下滑趋势。其三，公交客运业务主要来源于政府财政补贴，公司可持续发展能力弱，出租车客运业务效益下滑，发展空间有限，而战略型客运提高公司盈利能力。其四，国家对汽车零部件产业的政策支持以及上汽集团独立供应汽车零部件业务的整体优势，可使得公司后续发展能力好、盈利能力得到增强。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 6pt 0cm; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 20pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; mso-para-margin-left: 0cm; mso-char-indent-ｃｏｕｎｔ: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-ascii-font-family: '';">在购入的资产上，值得注意的是廷锋世通、小系车灯、上海纳铁福、三电贝洱、法雷奥电器等企业在各自从事的汽车内外饰件、车灯、传动轴、空调压缩机、发电机等领域长期保持市场销量第一。实际上，作为新的大股东，上汽集团明确独立供应汽车零部件业务“中型化、零级化、国际化”的发展战略，汽车零部件业务已经形成了门类较为齐全、产业链较为完整的产业体系。上汽集团独立供应汽车零部件业务具备为美、日、欧等不同体系整车配套的能力，并通过中性化战略，形成多方位进入国内主要汽车厂商零部件供应体系的业务模式。</span></p>
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