[转帖]次级债阴影仍在延续
<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">在过去的</span><span lang="EN-US">2007</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">年中，美国次级债危机引发了</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">次金融动荡，并迅速蔓延到全球市场。美国新世纪金融公司申请破产，美国第五大投行贝尔斯登濒临瓦解，法国最大银行巴黎银行深陷其中，国际各大银行在美次级房贷业务的坏账拨备不断调高等等，随后美联储及各国央行不断向金融体系注资维持金融体系稳定。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">然而一年后的</span><chsdate wst="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="11" month="7" year="2008"><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">日</span></chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">星期五，总部在美国加州专门发放住房贷款的银行</span><span lang="EN-US">IndyMac</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">（</span><span lang="EN-US">Independent National Mortgage </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">独立国家房贷公司）被美国储蓄管理局宣布关闭，监管机构美国联邦存款保险公司（</span><span lang="EN-US">FDIC</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">）迅速接管抵押贷款银行</span><span lang="EN-US">IndyMac</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">。自从</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">月底以来，印地麦克银行在短短的</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">天中被提走了</span><span lang="EN-US">13</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">亿美元，银行因此倒闭，成为美国历史上第二大规模的倒闭银行，仅次于</span><span lang="EN-US">1984</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">年破产的美国大陆伊利诺伊国民银行的规模。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">与此同时，投资者对房利美</span><a title="" href="http://www.jeweldia.com/administrator/news/#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"></span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-US">(Fannie Mae)</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">和房地美</span><a title="" href="http://www.jeweldia.com/administrator/news/#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"></span></span></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-US">(Freddie Mac)</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">稳定性感到担忧，美国主板上市公司，而其具有半官方性质的两公司房利美和房地美于</span><chsdate wst="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="11" month="7" year="2008"><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">日</span></chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">股价分别下跌了</span><span lang="EN-US">27.3%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">和</span><span lang="EN-US">26.0%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">房利美（</span><span lang="EN-US">FNM</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">），从</span><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">16</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">收盘价</span><span lang="EN-US">25.6</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">美元到</span><chsdate wst="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="15" month="7" year="2008"><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">15</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">日</span></chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">收盘价</span><span lang="EN-US">7.07</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">美元，一个月跌幅高达</span><span lang="EN-US">72%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">。然而自次级债爆发一年来其股价跌幅高达</span><span lang="EN-US">90%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">，低于道琼斯指数</span><span lang="EN-US">70</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">个百分点（如图</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">）。房地美（</span><span lang="EN-US">FRE</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">），</span><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">16</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">收盘价</span><span lang="EN-US">23.96</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">美元，</span><chsdate wst="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="15" month="7" year="2008"><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">15</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">日</span></chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">收盘价</span><span lang="EN-US">5.26</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">美元，一个月跌幅</span><span lang="EN-US">78%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">。自次级债爆发一年以来其股价跌幅高达</span><span lang="EN-US">90%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">以上，也低于道琼斯指数</span><span lang="EN-US">70</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">个百分点（如图</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">）。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 57.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: 5.5;"><shapetype id="_x0000_t202" path="m,l,21600r21600,l21600,xe" ospt="202" coordsize="21600,21600"><stroke joinstyle="miter"></stroke><path oconnecttype="rect" gradientshapeok="t"></path></shapetype><shape id="_x0000_s1026" type="#_x0000_t202" style="MARGIN-TOP: 9.3pt; Z-INDEX: 1; LEFT: 0px; MARGIN-LEFT: 226.5pt; WIDTH: 251.25pt; TEXT-INDENT: 0px; POSITION: absolute; HEIGHT: 184.8pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left;"><textbox style="mso-next-textbox: #_x0000_s1026;"></textbox></shape><span lang="EN-US"><p> <div align="center"><img height="248" alt="" src="http://www.jeweldia.com/uploads/20080717164801845.gif" width="336" border="0"/></div></p></span></p><div align="center"><img height="248" alt="" src="http://www.jeweldia.com/uploads/20080717164801845.gif" width="336" border="0"/></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 57.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: 5.5;"><span lang="EN-US"><p> </p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><p> <div align="center"><img height="248" alt="" src="http://www.jeweldia.com/uploads/20080717164950990.gif" width="337" border="0"/></div></p></span></p><div align="center"><img height="248" alt="" src="http://www.jeweldia.com/uploads/20080717164950990.gif" width="337" border="0"/></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="TEXT-ALIGN: center;"><span lang="EN-US"><p> </p></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">由于房利美和房地美具有半官方性质而其向来被视为最稳健的信贷机构，因此，这次许多持有此类股票的投资者损失惨重，最近更纷纷加入沽售行列，美股在金融股的带动下大跌，这对全球股市也造成打击。我国股市也深受其影响，</span><chsdate wst="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="15" month="7" year="2008"><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">15</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">日</span></chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">也在银行地产的带领下，纷纷下跌，再度失守</span><span lang="EN-US">2800</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">点关口。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 5.25pt; mso-char-indent-count: .5;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">美国政府出台<span class="hangju">多项紧急措施援救陷入困境的两大房贷巨头，</span>美证交会出台限制做空金融股救市，而且受到富国银行业绩好于预期以及油价大跌刺激，</span><chsdate wst="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="16" month="7" year="2008"><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">16</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">日</span></chsdate><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">房利美和房地美股价分别上涨</span><span lang="EN-US">30.83%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">和</span><span lang="EN-US">29.85%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">，但是面对全球通胀难题以及能源、粮食价格持续维持高位，对全球经济来说仍是困难重重，前景不容乐观。因此，美国救市措施也只是一种亡羊补牢行为，无法改变宏观经济向下运行的趋势。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="TEXT-INDENT: 5.25pt; mso-char-indent-count: .5;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><a href="http://www.jeweldia.com/news/index.aspx?code=011">九鼎观点</a></span></p>
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