[转帖]医药行业的发展
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">总体来看，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年是医药行业的调整年，医药制造业在规范化的进程中稳步复苏，企业经济效益好转，产业集中度提高。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">1~12</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">月，医药工业累计实现现价工业生产总值</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">6927.77</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">亿元，比上年同期的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">5537.03</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">亿元增长</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">25.09%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年我国医药工业总产值以高于</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">7.20</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">个百分点的增长幅度稳步持续发展。从行业分组来看，化学原料药行业和化学药品制剂行业累计实现现价工业生产总值同比分别增长</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">27.80%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">25.27%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">，增幅分别为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">15.39</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">个百分点和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">12.86</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">个百分点，仍处于医药行业的主导地位。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">1~12</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">月，医药工业累计实现销售收入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">6392.69</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">亿元，同比增长了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">24.90%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">，增幅同比上升了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">9.21</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">个百分点。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">1~12</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">月，医药工业销售成本累计</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">4436</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">亿元，同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">23.98%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">，比上年增长幅度上升了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">5.74</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">个百分点，各种医药原辅料的价格上涨成为主要因素。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年全球将有年销售额约</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">200</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">亿美元的药品面临专利过期，数额相当于前两年的总和。这将促使仿制药市场以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">14%-15%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">的势头增长，达到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">700</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">多亿美元。仿制药仍将成为国内市场主导。中国现以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">16%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">的年增长率位居全球医药市场第九位。中国医药市场未来几年将继续保持两位数的增长速度，在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">2011</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年将有望跃居全球第六位。尽管面临</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年国家宏观紧缩的财政政策，但医药生物行业因其自身特点受宏观调控的影响较小，而主要应得益于新医改政策下带来的良好发展环境，整体医药经济在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年的稳健向好甚至蓄势上扬。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年无论是外部的宏观经济大形势还是产业内部，都存在推动医药经济稳步增长的动因。外部推力与积累多年的产业内力一起集中爆发的话，就能推动产业持续成长。预计</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年医药工业总产值将达到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">7400</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">亿至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">7600</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">亿元左右，同比增长约</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><font face="">20%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">。我国医药经济在高速增长的同时，结构矛盾比较突出，行业对调整经济结构、转变增长方式、改革体制弊端的要求日益迫切。对此，制药企业该如何应对呢？</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt;"><p></p></span></p>
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