joyzc123 发表于 2007-10-25 14:04:16

中国股民都是炮灰？！

<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">关键字：</span>
                <span style="font-family: 宋体;">批驳</span>
<span style="font-family: 宋体;">股民</span>
                <span style="font-family: 宋体;">炮灰</span>
                <span style="font-family: 宋体;">观点</span><span lang="EN-US">
                        <br/>
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">武汉科技大学</span>
                <span style="font-family: 宋体;">董登新（教授）</span><span lang="EN-US"><br/>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">　笔者按：企图将中国股民当</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">炮灰</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的观点和想法，是十分错误而危险的。我们必须高度警惕和重视！</span><span lang="EN-US"><br/>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">　最近，中国股评界有一种值得我们警惕的新动向，一些</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">资深</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的、</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">权威</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的吹牛股评家，面对</span><span lang="EN-US">5500</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">点的中国疯牛以及接近</span><span lang="EN-US">80</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">倍的平均市盈率，他们一如继往地在</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">央视</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">节目中高举吹牛大旗，不谈风险、不谈责任，他们不但笃信中国牛市无尽头，而且还自圆其说地推出了他们的一套新观点，这些观点实在令人大惑不解、大感不安，甚至还有些毛骨悚然的感觉。思索再三，作此一文，以批驳之。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br/>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">　错误观点之一：中国股市只要具备融资功能（即圈钱功能），就不要谈什么投资价值，就不要害怕牛市疯狂，更不要害怕泡沫过大。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br/>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">　他们的依据是：因为股民有钱，且拥有巨大购买力，需求产生供给；因为新股申购中签率总是只有千分之几，所以股市是供不应求的，只要市场有需求，我们就应该充分满足它，只要上市公司能从市场募集到更多的资金，也就等于支持了民族企业的发展。因此，我们不应该害怕什么牛市疯狂，也不要害怕泡沫，而投资价值则是仁者见仁，智者见智，并无绝对标准。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br/>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">　错误观点之二：日美经历股灾后，经济却变得更为强大，不过，股民必须充当</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">炮灰</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br/>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">　面对牛市涨幅及换手率世界第一的中国股市，他们也承认目前的中国股市的确够</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">疯狂</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">，而且显然</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">涨过头</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">，但他们认为，只要上市公司能</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">圈钱</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">、证券公司能</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">赚钱</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">，即便</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">股灾</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">爆发，中国经济照样高增长，股灾不会影响中国经济正常发展。为此，他们还举例说明：日本在经历了</span><span lang="EN-US">80</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年代末期泡沫经济后，日经指数当年最高接近</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">万点，现在却只有</span><span lang="EN-US">17000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">点，但日本经济照样强大；美国</span><span lang="EN-US">NASDAQ</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">在</span><span lang="EN-US">90</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年代末期创下疯牛历史最高记录，一举突破</span><span lang="EN-US">5100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">点，然而，今天的</span><span lang="EN-US">NASDAQ</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">却只有</span><span lang="EN-US">2700</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">多点，但它丝毫也不影响美国经济的强大。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br/>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">　如此说来，股灾对于一国经济岂不成为一件大好事？然而，他们的结论却是令人吃惊的：上市公司赢了，证券公司赚了，国家经济发展了，股民却充当了炮灰，因为他们心甘情愿。他们认为，这就是为什么总有</span><span lang="EN-US">90%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">股民亏损的真正原因之所在。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br/>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">　错误观点之三：在一个散户为主的股市里，是股民（包括基民）培育了机构投资者，是股民让机构投资者不断走向成熟。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br/>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">　他们认为，机构投资者正是以散户群体（包括基民）作为其初始的博弈对象，才让他们逐渐变得有经验，逐渐变得自信而有实力，是股民培育了机构投资者，是股民让机构投资者不断走向壮大、走向成熟。股民</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">燃烧</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">了自己，却照亮了</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">别人</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">（机构投资者）。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br/>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">　上述观点的根本错误在于为疯牛狡辩，其最终目的就是要阻止政府干预股市，让疯牛放任自由。这显然是十分错误而危险的念头。众所周知，中国只是刚刚进入工业化中期，我们目前的情形有些类似于</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">世纪</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年代的美国经济。是的，</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">世纪</span><span lang="EN-US">80</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年代后的美国与日本早已进入后工业化时代，而且国民社会保障机制健全，一旦股灾，一个以机构投资者为主体的市场当然不会让股民太伤筋动骨了！然而，</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">世纪</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年代的大股灾，却几乎让美国经济社会走向崩溃的边缘！</span><span lang="EN-US"><br/>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">　现代中国社会保障制度尚不健全，股民炒股尚不理性，他们倾全家之所有，全力以赴地炒股，不过是为了挣点购房款或养命钱，吹牛大师们却力主让股民充当炮灰而不让政府干预股市，这能与</span><span lang="EN-US">80</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年代的日本和美国相提并论吗？</span><span lang="EN-US"><br/>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">　更何况：市场是否需要政府的干预与调控，这是由市场自身的发达程度所决定的。一般地，越是发达的市场，政府越应该少干预，因为市场成熟；相反，越是市场机制不健全、不完善，便越是需要政府的干预，因为这是政府对市场负责任。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br/>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">　中国股市不过是一个只有十多年历史的幼稚股市，没有政府的看护与管理，它必将沦为变相的赌场。股评家们过份高估或夸大中国股市的进步与规范，这对中国股市的健康成长将是极为不利的。相反，只有支持政府对疯牛的干预，才是对股民负责任的表现。因为牛市过度疯狂，必然导致毁灭性的股灾！</span></p>

joyzc123 发表于 2007-10-25 14:08:40

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joyzc123 发表于 2007-10-25 14:09:39

<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><op> </op></span></p>

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jackdu 发表于 2007-10-25 15:27:50

joyzc123 发表于 2007-10-25 17:41:26

<font class="htd">是炮灰  大家好好感受一下</font>
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查看完整版本: 中国股民都是炮灰？！