从风险中淘金
<font size="4"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">凡人只看见风险,但成功者则看到的是机会。清楚看见风险,就能发现更多方法来规避风险;越认识风险,就越能比竞争者掌握更多的机会。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""><font size="3"> <p></p></font></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">富贵险中求。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">商业的风险存在于两个不同的阶段,包括执行风险与设计风险。执行风险永远存在,但是风险更常存在于设计策略时。精心设计的策略并无法免除执行风险,但很少有企业会在设计段即考虑到能力风险,而将风险归咎于执行。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">以下将介绍风险管理大师——查德吉所着的《万全策略》(</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">Failsafe Strategy</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">)。查德吉认为,报酬高的机会之所以获利高,是因为风险太高而令大部分的企业无法获利,因此,若能抓住机会,摆脱竞争,那么就能在不屈服于风险的情况下保有获利。一旦清楚知道追求获利中的风险,就可进而延伸机会,并为股东争取利益,从别人避之唯恐不及的风险中获利。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""><font size="3"> <p></p></font></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">风险管理大师小档案</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">查德吉(</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">Sayan Chatterjee</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">)</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">美国凯斯西储大学(</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">Case Western Reserve University</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">)管理学院教授、宾州大学华顿商学院客座教授、维吉尼亚大学</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">(University Of Virginia)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">客座教授。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">他从</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">20</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">世纪</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">90</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年代起,就开始从事有关企业风险来源之研究。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">其著作被哈佛商学院</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""> (Harvard Business School)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">选为教材,并被许多策略教科书所引用,担任多家企业之顾问。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""><font size="3"> <p></p></font></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">自从</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">以来,台湾产业界的负面新闻不断,一连串的企业丑闻陆续爆发,一桩接着一桩,每条新闻无不令投资人信心崩溃。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">近年来,台湾企业不仅多家上市、上柜公司大幅调降财测,更涉及诈财吸金、掏空和内线交易等弊案,像是力霸、明基与力广,都在显示台湾企业财务体质的恶化。根据统计,台湾上百家的上市、上柜公司几乎都属于“高财务风险”企业,其平均风险系数竟将近</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">40%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">,数字之高令人咋舌。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">一般提到风险管理,多数人会将其与企业的资产或负债的价值变化联想在一起,尽管资产或负债的价值变化显而易见,但是影响企业生存的岂只是财务风险而已。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""><font size="3"> <p></p></font></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">风险在哪里?</span><font face=""></font></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="" size="3"></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">风险无所不在。经理人必须了解风险之所在,才能创造不同选择或方案来分摊风险。查德吉建议,经理人唯有从风险透镜中检视机会,才能避免风险,甚至增加保有获利的几率。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">查德吉从研究中发现,除了财务风险之外,商业的风险更来自“需求风险”、“竞争风险”以及“能力风险”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">● 需求风险</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">所谓需求风险,就是消费者并未如预期般购买产品或服务。因此要能有效销售公司的产品,必须确定顾客愿意付钱——购买公司的产品与服务。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">“顾客需求导向”已经被奉为圭臬,每个人都设法从消费者的立场来进行设计与研发。然而,倘若只单方面着眼于顾客需求,仍旧无法有效协助经理人预见不同的商业模式。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">只问顾客要什么还不够,因为顾客无法告诉我们有哪些商业模式可以满足他们的需求。而跳脱消费者需求导向思维的方式,就是思考顾客最终想要的结果是什么。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font><p p=""></p></p></font> <font size="4"> </font><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">凡人只看见风险,但成功者则看到的是机会。清楚看见风险,就能发现更多方法来规避风险;越认识风险,就越能比竞争者掌握更多的机会。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""><font size="3"> <p></p></font></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">富贵险中求。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">商业的风险存在于两个不同的阶段,包括执行风险与设计风险。执行风险永远存在,但是风险更常存在于设计策略时。精心设计的策略并无法免除执行风险,但很少有企业会在设计段即考虑到能力风险,而将风险归咎于执行。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">以下将介绍风险管理大师——查德吉所着的《万全策略》(</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">Failsafe Strategy</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">)。查德吉认为,报酬高的机会之所以获利高,是因为风险太高而令大部分的企业无法获利,因此,若能抓住机会,摆脱竞争,那么就能在不屈服于风险的情况下保有获利。一旦清楚知道追求获利中的风险,就可进而延伸机会,并为股东争取利益,从别人避之唯恐不及的风险中获利。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""><font size="3"> <p></p></font></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">风险管理大师小档案</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">查德吉(</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">Sayan Chatterjee</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">)</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">美国凯斯西储大学(</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">Case Western Reserve University</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">)管理学院教授、宾州大学华顿商学院客座教授、维吉尼亚大学</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">(University Of Virginia)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">客座教授。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">他从</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">20</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">世纪</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">90</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年代起,就开始从事有关企业风险来源之研究。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">其著作被哈佛商学院</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""> (Harvard Business School)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">选为教材,并被许多策略教科书所引用,担任多家企业之顾问。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""><font size="3"> <p></p></font></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">自从</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">以来,台湾产业界的负面新闻不断,一连串的企业丑闻陆续爆发,一桩接着一桩,每条新闻无不令投资人信心崩溃。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">近年来,台湾企业不仅多家上市、上柜公司大幅调降财测,更涉及诈财吸金、掏空和内线交易等弊案,像是力霸、明基与力广,都在显示台湾企业财务体质的恶化。根据统计,台湾上百家的上市、上柜公司几乎都属于“高财务风险”企业,其平均风险系数竟将近</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">40%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">,数字之高令人咋舌。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">一般提到风险管理,多数人会将其与企业的资产或负债的价值变化联想在一起,尽管资产或负债的价值变化显而易见,但是影响企业生存的岂只是财务风险而已。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""><font size="3"> <p></p></font></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">风险在哪里?</span><font face="">
</font></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="" size="3"></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">风险无所不在。经理人必须了解风险之所在,才能创造不同选择或方案来分摊风险。查德吉建议,经理人唯有从风险透镜中检视机会,才能避免风险,甚至增加保有获利的几率。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">查德吉从研究中发现,除了财务风险之外,商业的风险更来自“需求风险”、“竞争风险”以及“能力风险”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font size="3"><font p=""></font></font></span></span></font><p p=""></p></p> <font size="4"> </font>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">凡人只看见风险,但成功者则看到的是机会。清楚看见风险,就能发现更多方法来规避风险;越认识风险,就越能比竞争者掌握更多的机会。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""><font size="3"> <p></p></font></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">富贵险中求。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">商业的风险存在于两个不同的阶段,包括执行风险与设计风险。执行风险永远存在,但是风险更常存在于设计策略时。精心设计的策略并无法免除执行风险,但很少有企业会在设计段即考虑到能力风险,而将风险归咎于执行。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">以下将介绍风险管理大师——查德吉所着的《万全策略》(</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">Failsafe Strategy</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">)。查德吉认为,报酬高的机会之所以获利高,是因为风险太高而令大部分的企业无法获利,因此,若能抓住机会,摆脱竞争,那么就能在不屈服于风险的情况下保有获利。一旦清楚知道追求获利中的风险,就可进而延伸机会,并为股东争取利益,从别人避之唯恐不及的风险中获利。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""><font size="3"> <p></p></font></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">风险管理大师小档案</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">查德吉(</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">Sayan Chatterjee</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">)</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">美国凯斯西储大学(</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">Case Western Reserve University</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">)管理学院教授、宾州大学华顿商学院客座教授、维吉尼亚大学</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">(University Of Virginia)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">客座教授。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">他从</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">20</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">世纪</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">90</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">年代起,就开始从事有关企业风险来源之研究。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">其著作被哈佛商学院</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""> (Harvard Business School)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">选为教材,并被许多策略教科书所引用,担任多家企业之顾问。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""><font size="3"> <p></p></font></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">自从</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">以来,台湾产业界的负面新闻不断,一连串的企业丑闻陆续爆发,一桩接着一桩,每条新闻无不令投资人信心崩溃。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">近年来,台湾企业不仅多家上市、上柜公司大幅调降财测,更涉及诈财吸金、掏空和内线交易等弊案,像是力霸、明基与力广,都在显示台湾企业财务体质的恶化。根据统计,台湾上百家的上市、上柜公司几乎都属于“高财务风险”企业,其平均风险系数竟将近</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="">40%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">,数字之高令人咋舌。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';"><font size="3">一般提到风险管理,多数人会将其与企业的资产或负债的价值变化联想在一起,尽管资产或负债的价值变化显而易见,但是影响企业生存的岂只是财务风险而已。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face=""><font size="3"> <p></p></font></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">风险在哪里?</span><font face="">
</font></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="" size="3"></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">风险无所不在。经理人必须了解风险之所在,才能创造不同选择或方案来分摊风险。查德吉建议,经理人唯有从风险透镜中检视机会,才能避免风险,甚至增加保有获利的几率。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: '';">查德吉从研究中发现,除了财务风险之外,商业的风险更来自“需求风险”、“竞争风险”以及“能力风险”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font face=""> </font></span></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font size="3"><font p=""></font></font></span></span></font><p p=""></p></p> 谢谢分享!
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