牛市，小心让你破产 - 第2页 - 咨询战略 - 栖息谷-管理人的网上家园

qingfeng21 发表于 2007-6-13 20:43:02

发改委专家马晓河指出：我国正在由某一方面的过剩向全面过剩演变。由于产能过剩，内需不旺，中国产品被迫出口，又导致了大量的贸易摩擦，过分依赖国际市场的风险越来越大。马晓河举例说：中国人向世界上的每一个人提供了一双鞋子，可见鞋的产能过剩多少。2006年11月23日，央行副行长苏宁也表示，中国最终消费占GDP比重已从上世纪80年代超过62%下降到2005的52.1%，居民消费率也从1991年的48.8%下降到2005年的38.2%，均达到历史最低水平。而在中国居民消费率持续下降的同时，世界平均消费率达78%—79%，比较起来差别之大就如天上和地下。
 　　上面两位，一位是宏观经济的专家，一位是金融权威，但指出的是一个共同问题，就是因为内需不旺而导致产能过剩，一旦国际市场出现大的风险，中国将有成千上万工业企业面临生存的危险。
 　　让我们再来看看近几年推动中国经济高速发展的动因是什么：如果总揽中国经济全局就可以发现，推动中国经济高速增长的一是投资，二是消费，三是出口，可以说这是并驾齐驱的“三驾马车。”但是，在我国的实践中是“重投资、重出口、轻消费，”这是问题的表象。为什么中国人会“重投资、重出口、轻消费，”呢？明知消费是生产力，没有消费就没有生产力，这是一个浅显的经济学常识，但是在宏观经济发展的布局上，连马克思的剩余价值理论都不顾及了？
 　　再仔细分析，就会发现很有趣的现象：一是地方政府重投资，前几年表现的是“开发区”热，后来是“基本建设”热，再后来就是现在的“房地产”热；二是大中型企业重工业产品出口，不管是上市公司还是民营企业，只要形成了生产规模，眼光都瞄准了国际市场，大到汽车，家电，小到鞋子，袜子，打火机，一古脑出口。就“投资”热而言，高房价圈走了老百姓甚至两代人的财富，还有一代人背上了沉重的债务；就“出口”热而言，贸易顺差继续加剧，贸易摩擦不断增多，人民币升值压力越来越大。
 　　有经济学家分析，人民币自汇率改革以来升值了5%，现在的状况是有可能2007年一年就要升值5%，相当于前10多年的升值总幅度。那么这个后果是什么呢？许多经济学家讳莫如深，我可以大胆的告诉大家，后果就是人民币大量从不同渠道流出境，国际洗黑钱的势力乘机介入，甚至可以把中国贪官的钱都洗白了。

qingfeng21 发表于 2007-6-13 20:43:26

<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">可以说，在<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">2007<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">年之前，只听说外国人到中国来洗钱，这个局面也将因此而改变，中国人终于到外国去洗钱了。再说得深入一点，就是中国人民创造的财富被别人悄悄地<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">盗走<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">了。发改委专家马晓河先生的话头上，看看如何解决产能过剩的问题。其实，很简单，产能过剩的解决之道是刺激消费，而刺激消费的唯一办法就是降低房价。房价不降，中国人对未来的预期必将产生较大的压力而不敢消费，还有一部分成了房奴无钱消费。马晓河先生说，中国工业品利用率有半数低于<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">50%<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">，所以，为了减少风险，必须扩大内需。而内需如何才能扩大呢？<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">
 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　中国居民的消费率是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">38.2%,<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">世界平均消费率是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">78%—79% <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　中国居民平均房价收入比是一比十，世界平均房价收入比是一比五。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　两相对照，中国经济问题的症结就暴露出来，是高得离谱的房价将中国居民的财富搜刮一空，还拿什么去消费呢？所以中国人的消费率创下了历史新低。有专家预测，中国房价每下降一个点，将为市场一年增加<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">100<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">亿以上的消费，而中国房价从<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">2006<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">年前三季度的综合平均价位上，至少有<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">30%<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">以上的下降空间，也就是说，只要中国房价下降<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">30%<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">，中国市场一年将增加<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">3000<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">亿的消费总额，中国经济的问题也迎刃而解，中国民众也从此能过上好日子。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">
 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　相反，我国要是领导人的决策事物方控制不好这个局面，我国的经济将会崩溃。我们都清楚我们现在身处的国际环境有多恶劣，面对当前复杂的国际形势，中国一定要具备打赢两场战争的能力，一是军事战争，二是经济战争。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">
 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　用战争手段夺取别国别人的财富在人类历史上是很常见的。即使在<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">21<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">世纪的今天也还能看到。为了保护中国人民的生命财产，以及可能爆发的军事冲突，中国一定要建设强大的陆军，强大的海军，强大的空军和强大的天军（太空部队）。

qingfeng21 发表于 2007-6-13 20:43:48

在人类进入21世纪的今天，谁占领了太空这个制高点，谁就掌握了未来战争的主动权。任何太空非军事化的想法，只能是白日做梦！
 　　圣人说得好：落后是要挨打的！中国只有具备了彻底摧毁对手的实力，别人才不敢欺负中国。
 　　同时，在人类进入21世纪的今天，由于国际交流和贸易的全球化，一场新的战争----经济战争，已经取代军事战争，成为当今世界一部分人夺取另一部分人财产的主要手段
。 　　1997年东南亚的金融风暴就是经济战争的一个例子。落后的东南亚国家经济受到了重大打击。国际金融炒家以经济手段达到了以往要用战争手段才能达到的目标。
<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">   <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">在少迟一点的香港金融保卫战中，时任香港政务司司长的曾荫权和财政司司长任志刚，在中国中央政府的支持下，用大量外汇储备干预了香港的股票市场。中国中央政府派出了两名央行副行长到香港，要求香港的全部中资机构，全力以赴支持香港政府的扶盘行动。经过几个月的较量，香港政府成功击退了国际金融炒家把香港当作提款机的企图。那次的斗争是非常激烈的，香港恒指变动<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">1<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">点，期货的买卖就会相差<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">2.3<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">亿港币。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">
 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　香港金融保卫战虽然过去好多年了，我一直在想，如果没有强大中国做后盾，会不会发生<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">八国联军<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">攻打香港的可能呢？毕竟香港政府干预香港股票市场违反了当今国际主流社会的<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">规矩<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">
 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　中国航油（新加坡）在国际石油期货市场损失<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">5<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">亿美元和一位中国国资委职员在伦敦同期投资再次被吃表明中国在金融市场方面还有很多东西要学。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">
 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　就石油这一项，中国现在每年就要多花几百亿美元。现在是中国需要啥，国际商品市场就涨啥。可以说是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">抢你没商量<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　然而，石油等商品的价格对中国经济的危害并不是最严重的。真正可能对中国经济的造成严重危害是人民币汇率体系和不断高涨的房地产市场<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">
<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　我总觉得有人要以人民币汇率为突破口，搞垮中国的经济，夺取中国人民的经济成果。从要人民币升值和自由浮动的叫喊声中，我好像闻到了军事战争的火药味。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">

qingfeng21 发表于 2007-6-13 20:44:07

qingfeng21 发表于 2007-6-13 20:45:12

<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">金融大战如何不战而屈人之兵（大跌内幕），强烈建议读一下对于国际斗争，军事是政治的延续，政治说到底为的是经济利益，现代经济的灵魂和总阀门是金融。央视七套军事节目今天播出的国防战略节目讨论的主题是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">金融大战如何不战而屈人之兵<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">。节目回顾了历史上国与国之间的金融战争的主要战例，着重回顾分析了<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">97<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">年东南亚金融风暴的成因、过程、严重后果和教训，而且着重提到了我国当前的金融安全和金融风险的化解问题。节目最后得出的结论是：金融是第二国防。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　二战后，美国主导资本主义世界。冷战结束后，世界进入新市场经济时代，美国进一步梦想主宰全球。每有某个地区或国家经济有所起色，积累了一定的财富，以美国为基地的国际投机资本就会暗地策划金融偷袭，结果往往是导致被袭国家和地区多年的经济成就和积累的财富被席卷一空。受到金融突袭劫掠最严重的当数当年经济成就几乎颠覆美国霸主地位的日本。被美国劫掠后日本经济十几年来一蹶不振。其次数当年如日中天的亚洲四小龙等东亚东南亚国家，三十年辛辛苦苦取得的经济成就毁于一旦，积累的社会财富被劫去大半，许多市民不仅破产，而且成为<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">负资产者<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　进入新世纪以后，中国的发展吸引全球的目光，也触动了某些人敏感、脆弱而又阴暗的神经。说国际投机资金是游离于国家管理层和国际政治之外的<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">自由资本<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">是十分幼稚甚至弱智的。表面上的风和日丽掩盖不了暗地里的波涛汹涌。一段时期以来，逼迫中国开放汇率管制、开放资本投资管制最积极的国家有两个，表面上主要是美国，实质上主要是中国的世仇日本。到目前为止的各种迹象和端倪表明，通过没有硝烟的金融战颠覆中国经济引发中国内乱进而遏止中国发展是日本坚定不移的基本战略，关系紧张时如此，表面上缓和时亦如此。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">

qingfeng21 发表于 2007-6-13 20:45:51

<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">大家还记得今年的<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“2-27”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">吗？几乎所有的散户和所有的大小机构拼命抛售股票，大盘几乎跌停。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">2-27<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">莫名其妙的暴跌之后，包括主流媒体、各大机构在内对突如其来的变盘的原因莫衷一是，最后大家基本达成一致的原因竟然是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">没有原因<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">。果真没有原因？一周以后，国外的消息传来：当被问及<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">2-27<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">中国股市暴跌原因时，索罗斯表示，<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">我认为导致这一现象的原因不止一个，但其中最重要的罪魁就是套息交易的盛行。由于日元利率过低，导致其成为绝佳的融资货币，大量国内资金外流。再加上日元一直在下跌，因此许多人投入了套息交易。不过现在，这种情况正起着微妙的变化。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">” <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">注意，这里出现了关键词<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">日元<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">，而且还<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">正起着微妙的变化<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">。<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">
<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">至于日元的套息投机的<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">微妙的变化<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">如何能触发基本封闭的中国股市的毫无征兆的突然大跌呢？索罗斯似乎没有把话说透，其实已经昭然若揭了。首先，日元利率绝对是由日本管理层而不是其他什么人操控的，其次，基本封闭的中国股市其实一点也不封闭，池子里隐藏的鳄鱼其实不少。以为每日三四千亿的交易资金和过万亿的证券保证金全部来自于境内居民的储蓄搬家，你也太没智力和想象力了。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　按照资本直接来源计，日本是中国第二大外资来源国。但是日本是世界最大的海外资本流出国，一些我们看起来来源于港澳的特别是来源于台湾的外资，其实质还是日资。我国海关统计数据表明，自从去年四季度我国股市牛市征象确立以来，国内许多外资企业的出口业务金额强劲增长，甚至成倍增长。进一步的分析表明出口的实物量并没有如此大的增幅，涨的主要是价格。比如，原来出口十万套成衣的金额是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">100<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">万美元，现在同样这样一批十万套成衣加个<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">0<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">成为<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">1000<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">万美元，境外的买主当然就是境内外资企业的关联方甚至就是其主子。多出来的<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">900<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">万美元就作为热钱流进来了。我们的海关不仅没有限制，甚至还有出口退税的奖励。作为贸易项下流入的外汇，我国是立即结汇兑换成人民币的。这加剧了我国近期的流动性泛滥不说，投机资本进入国内很容易渗透到投机领域，去年以前是大城市的楼市，今年以来主要是股市。我国股市个人投资者实名制帐户数与实际投资者人数总也核对不清的问题其实就是端倪。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">

qingfeng21 发表于 2007-6-13 20:46:04

<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">如果这些国际投机资本仅仅是单纯的逐利，在风险自负前提下赚点钱也就罢了。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“2-27”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">说明问题远没有这么简单。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">2-27<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">大跌，我们的感觉是莫名其妙，人家可是内外策应默契，动作干净利落得很啊！据稍后国际上一些机构的粗略统计，这一跌，日本<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">20-30<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">亿美元进了帐！而且一切都合规合法，你有苦说不出。当然，人家的胃口绝不止区区<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">20-30<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">个亿，人家玩的可是地地道道的国家战略，这次只是小试牛刀而已。如果你神智还算清醒，你应该明白：金融实实在在成为了第二国防。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">  <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">如此明显的小动作岂能瞒得过我们国家的战略参谋机构的眼睛？<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">2-27<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">之后随即召开的全国<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">两会<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">上，刚刚还在鼓吹<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">泡沫论<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">的几个人物都齐刷刷地<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">主动<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">表态说没有泡沫了。个人言论服从国家战略的痕迹非常明显。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　来而不往非礼也。于是有了这次<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">5-30<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">5-30<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">大的背景在于短期内大盘拉涨过快，非常容易成为人家突然狙击沽空的靶子。既然短期风险已经聚集，温和方法释放风险的努力又屡不凑效，只能在气球还没有吹大到危险的地步抢先一针扎破它，而不是等人家默契好了由人家主动扎破。这次消息又来了，中国这一扎，人家近<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">50<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">亿美元顷刻间灰飞烟灭了。至于这一扎也伤到了自己百姓，第一这是没办法的事情，无法避免；第二突然的暴跌主要是套仓，真正亏损斩仓的并不多，过几天再涨起来就回来了；就算是斩仓，只要及时逢低吸进好的品种，也很快就可以涨回来的。而人家玩的那个套期交易新玩意儿属于暴仓，暴仓是一次性的交易，再涨也回不来了。这里请注意两个细节，一是中国<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">CZB<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">在<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">5-30<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">前大约一周有个似是而非的<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">辟谣<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">，现在看显然不是辟谣，管理层也从来没有说那是辟谣，有人说那是诱仓，管理层没有辩解什么，确实也没什么好解释的，明白的不用解释你也明白；二是印花税的消息是北京时间<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">5<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">月<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">30<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">日凌晨发布的，其时正是欧洲收市、美国午市时间，其中精妙意味深长啊！国际货币交易市场主要在伦敦和纽约。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">

qingfeng21 发表于 2007-6-13 20:46:24

<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">5-30<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">暴跌之后，群众中有一些不解和抱怨，这里需要说明一下。有目共睹，胡温这届新政是非常亲民爱民利民平民化的，只要你不带情绪和偏见，应该能承认这个事实。若非关乎国际斗争、国家金融安全的重大事件，是绝不会为了套住广大普通股民而对股市施以重手的。虽然投鼠忌器，但是作为中国这样复杂的大国的中央必须权衡利弊果断抉择，岂能优柔寡断无所作为？这是广大股民首先必须理解的。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　其次需要说明的是，这次突然启动的调控，到底要达到什么目的，收到什么效果？目的分两个方面。一个是对人家的，明白告诉人家，不要在中国资本市场或其他投资市场玩火。中国虽然实行了市场经济制度，但是这个市场经济首先是要造福中国人民的。外国资本参与中国建设分享中国经济成就可以，但是不允许祸害中国经济、危害中国金融安全，否则中国的宏观调控将是主动出击而不是其他国家那样被动应付。在<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">成熟市场<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">灵验的那些破坏性伎俩面对中国的调控可能要失灵。比如，以为中国不可能在同一个月的时间内连续出台调控政策，这次就连续出台了，下次是不是连续出台？不知道；以为中国总是在周末时间出台调控措施，这次就在周三出了，而且是在半夜（凌晨），下次周几出？不知道；以为中国出台调控都会事先打声招呼，这次就守口如瓶，面对提问的回答是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">没有听说<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">，可以理解为<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">无可奉告<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">，也可以理解为否认其事，以中国语言的精妙，外国投机分子可要大大地当心了。一些不明真相的人说中国这次调控是要打压股价好让新增加的<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">200<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">亿美元的<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">QFII<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">好抄底。简直是胡说八道，不要说新增加的<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">200<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">亿美元的<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">QFII<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">到今天还只是个计划，并没有办好手续进来，就算已经进来我估计也是屁滚尿流吓得逃出去，它们哪里见识过这样强硬的调控？在如此不可预测的市场里投机，打死它都不敢！<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">

qingfeng21 发表于 2007-6-13 20:47:02

<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">另一个目的就是对境内投资者的，主要是对广大个人投资者的，这就是风险教育。我国的投资者特别是大量新入市的投资者缺乏风险意识，而且更危险的是很多人在缺乏承担风险的能力的条件下贸然入市一博，这是很令管理层担忧的。显然空洞的说教效果很微弱，如果不在<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">4300<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">点来一次实实在在的风险教育，难道到<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">8300<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">点再搞？相信除了<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">国际投机资本<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">之外没有其他人希望这样。风险教育不是号召群众不买股票，鼓励直接融资减少间接融资当前和今后仍然是我国金融结构调整的方向。国家鼓励的是理性稳健的投资，而不是失去理智的跟风炒作，更不是违法乱纪的内幕交易。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　现在许多人把管理层的调控的点位理解为管理层允许的高度，这也是误读误判。中国的大国崛起、中国经济发展腾飞的潜力在人类历史上显然是空前的，中国资本市场刚刚基本完成最深刻的制度变革的第一步，将要承担的国家资源的优化配置的规模和作用也将是空前的，管理层怎么可能画地为牢地给这样的一个资本市场人为限定一个高度呢？懂经济学的人能够判断现在的行情是牛市，但是，只有懂得政治经济学的人才知道，中国资本市场的牛市才刚刚开始，它的高度与长度都是不可限量的。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">　　上面说到<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">中国资本市场刚刚基本完成最深刻的制度变革的第一步<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">，现在听到的说法都是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">中国资本市场刚刚基本完成最深刻的制度变革<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">，没有说是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">第一步<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">。事实上，股权分置改革确实只是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">最深刻的制度变革的第一步<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">，这第一步解决的是现有公司大股东的股份不流通以及由于不流通导致的公司治理异化的问题。从我国经济腾飞所必须社会主义市场经济产权制度基础来看，这第一步并不直接解决问题，顺理成章地需要展开第二步。简而言之，这第二步分为两个方面。一个方面是已上市公司，条件允许的都要抓紧时间通过资产注入的方式实现整体上市。股份全流通和资产整体上市是现代股份公司建立起良性产权激励约束机制的基础，否则即使大股东股份全流通了，由于资产是分割上市的，大股东在大量关联交易里寻租营私的事情就很方便而不可避免。另一个方面是未上市企业和今后的新企业，除了极少数国家需要直接垄断控制的以外，其他的符合条件的都可以上市到资本市场直接融资同时接受市场的选择或淘汰，即以现代企业制度的素质到资本市场取得资源配置。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt;">

qingfeng21 发表于 2007-6-13 20:47:20

以上两方面，即使仅从外延注入的资产规模来考察，我们的股市大盘也绝对不止现在4000多点！更不要说良性产权激励约束机制带来的公司资产内涵素质的巨大增长了。所以前面说这次套住的股民不要急燥，股市不会恶性大跌。既然如此，管理层岂不是没有调控的必要？不是。如前面所述，一些心怀叵测的人一直没有停止寻找机会暗算我们，所以我们的金融和股市必须大体保持平稳发展，否则就给他们提供了兴风作浪的绝好时机。大体保持平稳发展不是没有波动，但是不能有巨大的失控的波动（无论涨跌），否则社会出动荡、国家有危险。前一段，显然涨得太快太急，境内外那些心怀叵测的人已经蠢蠢欲动，所以管理层必须果断调控减速。就后市而言，减速不是开倒车，不会继续大跌，否则真就让新增的QFII抄大底了；同时经过这次生动的风险教育，相信不会再一日千里地狂涨了，将真正进入持续中牛、慢牛的发展阶段，那些亡我之心不死的人终将无计可施。从国内国外经验来看，快牛急牛从来都不是大牛，只有慢牛才是大牛。公司层面，在基本完成最深刻的制度变革的第一步的基础上，全面开展波澜壮阔的第二步的变革。

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