增长太快，令人不安

金宏伟

Breathing fire
巨龙喷火
Apr 24th 2007 | NEW YORK
From Economist.com

Roaring too fast for comfort
增长太快，令人不安



ONE would think that Asian equity markets would be happy at the news that China’s economy, the regional powerhouse, is growing even faster than expected. But that’s not the way it turned out. Shortly before China’s government said, late last week, that the economy grew at an annualised pace of 11.1% in the first three months of 2007, and as forecasts rose for the year’s overall growth, traders on the region’s big exchanges briefly took fright. The next day markets rebounded.
有人会想，听到中国经济——地区经济的引擎——正以高于预期的速度增长，亚洲股票市场应该欢欣鼓舞才对。但事实并非如此。就在中国政府上周晚些时候刚宣布其2007年前三个月的经济以年增长率为11.1%的速度增长之后不久，且由于年总体增长率的预报调高，本地区大型证券交易所中的经纪人当时都惊得目瞪口呆。第二天市场反弹。

Nobody is jumpy about growth, of course, but of the government's reaction to it. Chinese officials are getting worried that a meltdown may be pending, and have been intervening to dampen things down. But over the past few years tighter interest rates, lending restrictions and heavier bank regulation have failed to cool the economy. Now they may have to be even more aggressive.
当然，没人会为增长而忧虑，而是忧虑政府的反应。中国官员日益担心灾难就在眼前，一直加以干涉，给经济降温。但过去几年的调高利率、限制贷款及更为严厉的银行监管措施都未能给经济降温。现在官员们可能必须采取更为激烈的手段。

China’s fairly primitive financial infrastructure makes it difficult to fine-tune credit through monetary and fiscal policy. As worries grow about credit bubbles and overinvestment, no one knows quite how hard the government may need to step on the brakes. All this makes investors, who should be bullish, uncertain about what the near future may bring.
中国的金融基础设施相当原始，因此难以通过货币和财政政策对信贷进行微调。尽管人们越来越担心信贷泡沫破裂和投资过热，没有人知道政府的降温力度以多大为宜。向来自信的投资商也因此晕头转向，无法预测前景。

Across the Pacific, protectionists in America, who should be displeased to hear of even faster Chinese growth, may have found a note of cheer. If the Chinese government wants to get runaway growth under control, it may allow faster appreciation of the yuan.
大西洋对岸的美国的贸易保护主义者，听到中国经济超预期增长本该垂头丧气，现在可能有理由弹冠相庆了。如果中国政府想遏制失控的经济增长，可能需要让人民币更快升值。

Relations between China and America have been getting tense, thanks to the growing flow of cheap Chinese goods into American markets. But the Bush administration has so far stayed relatively friendly towards its trading partner. China has not been called a currency manipulator, despite domestic American pressure over the controlled currency. The yuan is now trading at about 7.7 to the dollar, up by a little over 7% since the Chinese currency went off its fixed peg in mid-2005. More vocal critics would like to see appreciation well into double digits, and have threatened sanctions if that does not happen. Until now, the administration has managed to stall such drastic moves with soothing talk about gradual increases.
由于廉价中国商品不断涌入美国，中美关系一直处于紧张态势。但布什政府至今为止对待其贸易伙伴还算相对友好。尽管美国国内就货币控制对布什施加压力，但布什并没有将中国称为“货币操纵国”。人民币对美元的交易比率是7.7:1，同2005年中期人民币放弃固定汇率时相比，稍微上涨了7%。更多公开批评的人士希望看到人民币能以两位数升值，并且威胁如果不行，就实施制裁。至今为止，布什政府一直通过逐步升值之类的谈话安慰这些人，成功阻止了此类激烈的行动。

That may be changing, however. China’s trade surplus with America and its foreign-exchange reserves continue to grow, making economists fidgety and protectionist politicians livid. In the first three months of this year alone, China added $135.7-billion worth of foreign currency to its reserves, compared with $247.3 billion for all of 2006. This coincides with the lame duck phase of the Bush administration, hamstrung by a newly Democratic congress, and politically crippled by the debacle in Iraq. With the 2008 presidential campaign getting into full swing, the administration is rapidly losing the will and strength to fight the protectionists.
然而，这种情况有可能正在改变。由于中美贸易赤字以及中国外汇储备均持续增加，经济学家坐卧不安，支持贸易保护主义的政客们怒气冲冲。仅在今年头三个月，中国的外汇储备就增加了1,357亿美元，而2006年全年才增加了2,473亿美元。而此时恰好又赶上布什政府当跛脚鸭的时候——新的民主党主宰的国会处处掣肘，政治声誉也因伊拉克泥潭严重受损。随着2008年总统大选的逐步展开，本届政府反击保护主义者的意愿和力量迅速消失。

On Friday April 20th Hank Paulson, America’s treasury secretary, said that Chinese officials “are not moving, in my judgment, quickly enough” to loosen restrictions on the yuan. In the past Mr Paulson has been rather sympathetic to the Chinese on their currency conundrum, so this does not bode well for relations between the two. Some now reckon that trade sanctions against China are on their way.
4月20日周五，美国财政部长鲍尔森说中国官员在放松人民币管制方面“依我看，行动还不够快”，过去鲍尔森在货币问题上，对中国一直相当同情，所以，这种说法对双方的关系不是什么好兆头。有人推断美国正酝酿对中国实施贸易制裁。

Indeed, they have already started. Last month, America slapped anti-dumping duties on imports of high-gloss paper from China, in response to a complaint from domestic manufacturers. It has also filed a complaint at the World Trade Organisation against Chinese copyright violations.
实际上，制裁已经开始。上个月美国就针对从中国进口的高光泽纸实施了反倾销税，这是为了回应国内制造商的投诉。美国也针对中国侵犯版权问题向世界贸易组织投诉。

If the Chinese government were to let off some economic steam by allowing the yuan to appreciate more, this might—temporarily, at least—appease some of America’s “fair traders”. It also makes some economic sense for China. Because its financial infrastructure is a little shaky, the central bank is not completely able to “sterilise” its foreign-currency transactions. The massive reserves it is accumulating could therefore translate into inflationary pressure, forcing it to clamp down on growth. A more freely floating currency would ease this stop-and-go cycle.
如果中国政府通过让人民币升值的方法，稍微减弱经济增长的势头，这或许——至少临时——能够平息某些美国主张“公平贸易”人士的愤怒。这对中国也有经济上的好处。因为其金融基础设施不太稳固，中央银行并不能完全“禁绝”外汇交易。日益增多的庞大的外汇储备可能转为通胀压力，迫使中国严格控制增速。而如果货币能够更为自由浮动，就会走出“停停走走”的怪圈。

However, it’s not clear how much impact this would really have on exports. For many of the products it exports, China is merely an assembler of parts made elsewhere, which is why its trade surplus with the rest of the world is less impressive than its bilateral one with America. Should the yuan rise, it will make those inputs cheaper for Chinese firms, so export prices will rise less than the yuan-bashers might hope.
然而，人们还不清楚这对出口真正会产生什么影响。就很多出口的产品而言，中国不过就是把别的地方的零件装配起来的装配工，这就是为什么中国同世界其他地方的贸易顺差同美国的双边贸易顺差相比，不那么引人注目。但如果人民币升值，中国公司进口零部件也会便宜，出口价格的上涨幅度可能比那些叫嚣着惩罚人民币的人希望的要低。
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