国际贸易__外贸依存度(外文转贴)

westlife31

Views On China’s Foreign Trade Dependency

China’s foreign trade dependency, defined as a country’s export-GDP ratio and share in total world exports, has increased considerably over the last two decades. In 1978, China’s exports constituted a mere 5% of its GDP; by 1998, that figure topped 20%. Similarly, China’s share in world exports rose from 0.78% in 1978 to 3% in 1998. However, with the exception of 1994, China’s export dependency over the last 20 years is still lower than the world’s average level and significantly lower than in East and Southeast Asia.

The economies of large countries tend to have lower degrees of trade dependency because of large domestic markets and resources. In fact, some Chinese scholars suggest that China’s trade dependency is already higher than that of the United States, Japan, India and Brazil, and that a greater degree of trade dependency would result in an exodus of resources because of worsening trade terms. It is possible, however, that China’s trade dependency may have been overestimated. According to World Bank experts, China’s non-trade product prices have been underestimated. After adjusting China’s GDP based on parity purchasing power (PPP), the country’s trade dependency falls by 10 percentage points, still higher than India’s but approximating Brazil’s.

China's greatest weakness in economic development is its foreign dependency.

China now claims that it is the world's largest workshop. What needs to be understood is the market for which China produces—it produces for the overseas instead of the domestic market. In fact, China's greatest weakness in economic development is its foreign dependency.

The Chinese communist regime's most recent irrational behavior over the trade war on textiles is a clear indication of Beijing's insecurity. It is an indication that it recognizes its greatest weakness—Chinese economy's foreign dependency.

The percentage of a state's total volume of imports and exports to its GDP is one indicator of a state's dependence on foreign trade. The dependence on foreign trade refers to the extent a state's economy depends on foreign trade. Inherent in this assumption are many elements of a state's economic development strategy, most of all it shapes the state's international relations.

Over the past decade, China experienced escalating imports and exports. In 2004, China recorded US$1.65 trillion of GDP and US$1.15 trillion of foreign trade volume, resulting in a ratio of trade volume to GDP of 70 percent – 70 percent of China's output is foreign trade related. This represents a 60 percent increase since 1978. China has become the most export-oriented nation.

In contrast, between1980 to 2001, the U.S., Japan, India, and Germany's dependence on foreign trade ranged between 14 and 20 percent. It indicates China's over reliance on foreign trade, which sets it apart from other nations.

Alas, China is unable to overcome this weakness, which it has definitely recognized. We believe that over reliance on foreign trade was the sole option open to China's economic revival. It had no other choice than to adhere to the economic model known as "East Asia Tigers" [Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan – which is synonymous with nations that achieve high growth by pursuing an export-driven and trade strategy]. Under this model, foreign funds and foreign economic relations are based on the economic theory of "comparative advantage" [this indicates why it may be beneficial for two countries to trade, even though one of them may be able to produce more cheaply than the other].

According to this theory, a developing nation must export goods it can produce cheaper than other nations and import goods where is at a disadvantage. Only this way can it maximize the efficiency of the international division of labor and use it to the benefit of its own economic development. Alas, this model worked well for the "East Asia Tigers" whereas its application has led to serious problems in China. The implication is China's growth momentum and excessive dependence on international market is unparalleled in the world's economic history. Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong did experience a short period of rapid growth, but caught up fast with other industrialized countries. It must be remembered that the economic scale of these nations or regions was small to begin with. The world has indeed witnessed large economies, such as the U.S. evolving from secondary developed nation into a leading nation. But, the U.S. has a relatively stable domestic market with a relatively constant market demand. On the other hand, given the low wages of China's laborers, the purchasing power has remained low and consumption demand has not materialized.

For two reasons, the comparative advantage model cannot be successful in China. On the one hand, China's zealous pursuit of comparative advantage leads to over production in some industries and, as a result, the goods it produces become too cheap. On the other hand, China does not have a mature domestic market that creates the demand to sustain its economy. Therefore, China's goods must be sold in overseas markets. China's imports and exports represent such an immense share of the world trade that its prices distort the world market. It should be noted that China has concentrated its import and export trade to a few countries and regions, namely the U.S., Japan, and the EU. These three account for around 50 percent of its total trade volume. So, any goods that China dumps into these three markets will create pressure that may not be sustained for long.

China relies on the demand in foreign markets to support its economy and to provide for its immense cheap labor. Such reliance may work for a period of time, but in the long run, it will conflict with the interests of other countries. The trade war on textiles is only the beginning of such frictions, as the over supply of Chinese goods will surely cause a tilted market.

westlife31

The risks on high foreign trade dependency

 

If a war broke out across the Taiwan Straits and a Western blockade materialized, how much economic loss would China suffer?

In 2000, China's GNP was 8.3 trillion yuan which, at the exchange rate of 1 dollar: 8.3 yuan, equals 1 trillion U.S. dollars. Revenue from foreign trade was $474.3 billion, a gain of 31.5%, in which export took up $249.2 billion, an increase of 27.8%. Imports were worth $225.1 billion, up 35.8%, which represents a favorable trade balance of $24.1 billion.

Within foreign trade, general trade export earned $105.2 billion, an increase of 32.9%, while import was $100.1 billion, an increase of 49.3%. Export of machinery and electronic products was $105.3 billion, up 36.9%; export of high tech products was $37 billion, up 50%; import of primary products was 46.7 billion U.S. dollars, gaining 74%; import of crude oil, soybeans, machinery, electronic and high tech products increased by 30%. The degree of foreign trade dependency, calculated by dividing the total amount of foreign trade by GNP, therefore was 47%. If we take out the twice-calculated processing trade figures, the degree of foreign trade dependency was 35%, and if we take out all the revenue from processing trade, then the degree of dependency was 23.5%. According to the average purchasing power, if we say the exchange rate of U.S. dollar to a renminbi is 1:5, then our GNP will be $1.66 billion, and the degree of foreign trade dependency will be 28.6%, and becomes 14.3% if we minus processing trade figures.

Let's suppose China will continue in the pursuit of a liberalized economy without any significant readjustment of interest priorities, then the existing domestic and foreign resources will sustain our economic growth for another five years. If we have an annual GDP increase of 8%, which will be 11.1553 trillion yuan of renminbi, or 1.3604 trillion U.S. dollars at a rate of 1:8.3, total foreign trade will be 919.6 billion U.S. dollars, making a 67.5% rate of foreign trade dependency, or 39% without processing trade. If we calculate it at the rate of 1:5 according to the average purchasing power, then our GNP is 2.2311 trillion U.S. dollars, representing a 41.2% rate of foreign trade dependency, or 21% without counting in processing trade figures. If we depreciate renminbi to the rate of 1:10, then the GNP will be 1.1155 trillion U.S. dollars, making a historic high rate of foreign trade dependency of 82.4%, which is reduced to 41.2% minus processing trade. With inflation in China in mind, if we calculate our GNP according to the purchasing power parity of 1:7 (U.S. dollar to yuan), then it will be 1.5936 trillion dollars, making it 57.7% rate of foreign trade dependency, that is 26% without processing trade. Therefore, we can predict that the year 2005 will witness the peak of China's pursuit of a free economy. In 2005, annual export increase will be 15% achieving $435.8 billion; annual import will go up 20% to $466.8 billion, resulting in $31 billion of trade deficit.

 

Processing trade will go up 15% to $240.8 billion, and business operation fees from processing trade companies will be $50 billion. Direct foreign investment will be at the same level of $60 billion, helping with a favorable balance in foreign income and expenses. Our foreign currency reserve will be maintained at 200 billion U.S. dollars. The Chinese stock market will be open to foreign traders, which will increase the degree of our financial dependency.

So, from all the above clear analysis, we can get a conclusion that once the Taiwan Straits war broken out and a Western blockade materialized, China’s high foreign trade dependency ratio will make the economic loss greater.

Other factors caused China’s high foreign trade dependency

China’s foreign trade dependency grew from about 8 percent to 64 percent by 2004, the highest in the world. But the high foreign trade dependency of China was different from that of other countries, since half of the trade involved processing materials supplied by foreign customers for re-export. So the actual foreign trade dependency of our country is about 30 percent.

We should say that foreign trade has contributed a lot to China’s development. It enables China to make use of foreign resources and markets, increase their revenues and sustain a large number of employees. But now it’s time for them to reflect upon the problems in the import and export trade. There are at least three problems.

First, China had intended to open our market in exchange for foreign advanced technology, but in fact, they have yielded their market without getting back any core technology. The monopoly of technology is still a big problem, so they need to rely on themselves for innovation. Second, they lowered costs, especially salaries, but have not attained improved efficiency or profits. Third, they have expanded the scale of foreign trade, but have not enhanced our international competitiveness as they lack the ability to innovate and many of our products don’t have their own brands.

If these three problems can be definitely resolved, it may lowered the high foreign trade dependency at last.

westlife31

大家看看好不好,多多指点!!!摘自美国的一篇学者文章,谈中国外贸依存度的.

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-12 11:11:27编辑过]

xiaowuaini

[em02]

xiaowuaini

你在哪里找到的啊，有没有汉语对照的？[em02]

westlife31

这个东东俺已经翻译过了，不过找不到电子版的了，8好意思，去年写论文的时候帮女朋友找的。

QYN0504

请问上面的贸易外文的作者和出处？

望尽快答复，非常感谢！