[转帖]谁是21世纪经济丛林的适者

林帆

在21世纪初的经济丛林中，最有可能灭绝的物种之一，就是那个长牙巨兽：跨国公司。在竞争和全球环境急剧变化的双重作用下，跨国公司被迫迅速进化为一种不同的生命形式。

在IBM，我们称之为“全球整合型企业”(globally integrated enterprise)。它与跨国公司不同：跨国公司在世界各个市场创造自己的“迷你”版本；而这种新的组织形式会在任何合理的地方配置工作、技术和业务，只要这些地方能够获取专业技术、具有经济优势并拥有开放的环境以及先进技术。

与世界上许多其它公司一样，我的公司也处在这样的变革之中。根据我们最近对全球1000多位首席执行官的调查，86%的人表示，他们正在计划对他们的资产及知识组合进行根本性变革，以便达到更高程度的全球整合。

不过，正如我们从生物学上所了解到的，自然进化适用于所有生物，而不仅仅是那些体型庞大、强劲有力的生物。小组织同样也在经历类似的变革。令他们高兴的是，他们发现，规模小并不一定意味着只能开展本地业务。

这个发现非常新颖。在过去，如果你是一位小商人，就等于说你是一位当地的生意人。你为当地市场服务，拥有当地的供应商，并且雇佣当地的劳动力。你维持着当地的一个店面以及强大的当地关系网。

当然，这种“当地对当地”(local-to-local)的模式一直都存在，但是现在，有一些新的东西补充了进来。许多小企业发现，购买他们产品和服务的潜在客户并不仅仅是他们的邻居。如今，他们也可以为那些迅速增长的“全球中产阶级”(global middle class)服务了——据世界银行(World Bank)的数据显示，到2030年，发展中国家的中产阶级将从目前的4亿增长到12亿，占世界人口的15%。

这一巨大新兴消费群体每年的人均购买力约在4000美元到1.7万美元之间，他们将会喜爱国际旅行、汽车、其它高级产品以及国际水平的教育。他们不会在意这些产品和服务是在哪里创造出来的。

与公司首席执行官们一样，企业家也已经注意到了这些。得益于20世纪90年代期间在开放性标准基础上建立起来的全球网络化的基础设施，这些新物种（全球小企业）能够进入到全球供应链和人才库中，随时随地可获得技术技能。他们能够采用非常新型的管理系统——网络化、实时、高度合作化的管理系统。他们能够迅速发现其它组织，迅速与它们合伙，甚至迅速与它们合并。

这种组织的经济社会重要性不能被过分夸大。小公司和企业家都是为当地社区和相关地区创造工作机会的发动机。在逐步升级的有关全球整合的争论中，工作（它们如何被创造出来以及如何丢失）可谓最为重要的热点问题。

“一切政治都是当地的”，这是民主社会的真理。它同样也适用于工作机会。因此，在逐步展开的全球整合大戏中，最为重要的演员实际上可能是最微小的、最接近本土的人——新型全球企业家。

可能并不令人吃惊的是，考虑到其中的新奇性，现有机制几乎不支持这类前途远大的新演员。要想填补这一缺口，一个有趣方式就是在线交换，专门针对新型全球企业家，以及那些致力于帮助他们、致力于创造未来工作机会的许多地区性规划和行政部门。

当一切事物被连接起来，工作就流动起来了。在我们如今所处的时代，成功的关键在于你是否能让工作流向你。这并非取决于你有多大，或者你在哪里，而是取决于创新如何使你在一个更大、更开放的舞台上脱颖而出。如今，大中小型企业面对着相同的标准、相同的机会。

我们被大量崭新的可能性所包围，但是他们都给社会和经济生活带来了空前的复杂性。不过，即便存在种种挑战，无数的企业家、专业人士以及“新型全球公民”(new global citizens)似乎都急于踏上这一旅程。

我们会吗？

本篇作者是IBM的董事长、总裁兼首席执行官

译者/董琴

Within the economic jungle of the early 21st century, one of the species most threatened with extinction is the large, long-in-the-tusk beast known as the multinational corporation. Beset by competition and dramatic changes in its global environment, the multinational is being forced to evolve - quite rapidly - into a different life form.

We at IBM call this the "globally integrated enterprise". Unlike the multinational - which created miniversions of itself in markets around the world - this new kind of organisation locates work, skills and operations wherever it makes sense, based on access to expertise, on superior economics and on the presence of open environments and technologies.

My company, like hundreds of others around the world, is in the midst of such a transformation. In our latest worldwide survey of more than 1,000 chief executives, 86 per cent said they were planning fundamental changes in their asset and knowledge mix in order to become more globally integrated.

But, as we know from biology, natural selection applies to all creatures, not only the large and powerful. Smaller organisations are also undergoing parallel changes. They are discovering, to their delight, that small does not necessarily mean local.

This is very new. In the past, if you were a small businessperson, you were a local businessperson. You served a local market, had local suppliers and drew from a local workforce. You maintained a local storefront and strong local relationships.

Of course, this local-to-local model will always be with us, but it is now being complemented by something novel. Many small businesses have figured out that the potential buyers of their products and services are not just their neighbours. They can now also reach out to the fast-growing "global middle class" - which, according to the World Bank, will include 1.2bn people in developing countries by the year 2030. That is 15 per cent of the world's population, up from 400m today.

This vast group of new consumers will have annual purchasing power of between $4,000 and $17,000 per capita and will enjoy access to international travel, cars, other advanced products and international levels of education. They will not care where those products and services are created.

Entrepreneurs, like corporate chiefs, have noticed. Thanks to the globally networked infrastructure that was built on open standards during the 1990s, this new species - the global small business - can tap into worldwide supply chains and global talent pools, with skills available any time, anywhere. They are able to adopt very new kinds of management systems - networked, real-time and highly collaborative. They can find, partner with and even aggregate with other organisations rapidly.

The economic and societal importance of this cannot be overstated. Small companies and entrepreneurs are the engines of job creation for local communities and regions. Jobs - how they are created and how they are lost - are arguably the single most important hot-button issue in the escalating debate on global integration.

It is an axiom in democratic societies that "all politics is local". Well, that also applies to jobs. Therefore, the most important actor in the unfolding drama of global integration may actually be the smallest and closest to home - the new global entrepreneur.

Perhaps not surprisingly, given its novelty, there are few existing mechanisms to support this promising new player. One interesting approach to fill that gap could be an online exchange, specifically designed for the new global entrepreneur, and for the many regional planning and governmental authorities focused on helping them and on creating the jobs of the future.

When everything is connected, work flows. In the era we are now entering, the key to success will be whether you can get work to flow to you. That will depend not on how big you are or where you are located, but on how you differentiate yourself through innovation, within a much larger and more open arena. Today, these same criteria - and opportunities - apply to the small as well as the large.

We are surrounded today by vast new possibilities, but they bring with them an unprecedented complexity to social and economic life. Yet, for all its challenges, hundreds of millions of entrepreneurs, professionals and "new global citizens" seem eager to take this journey.

Will we?

The writer is chairman, president and chief executive, IBM

译者/董琴

Within the economic jungle of the early 21st century, one of the species most threatened with extinction is the large, long-in-the-tusk beast known as the multinational corporation. Beset by competition and dramatic changes in its global environment, the multinational is being forced to evolve - quite rapidly - into a different life form.

We at IBM call this the "globally integrated enterprise". Unlike the multinational - which created miniversions of itself in markets around the world - this new kind of organisation locates work, skills and operations wherever it makes sense, based on access to expertise, on superior economics and on the presence of open environments and technologies.

My company, like hundreds of others around the world, is in the midst of such a transformation. In our latest worldwide survey of more than 1,000 chief executives, 86 per cent said they were planning fundamental changes in their asset and knowledge mix in order to become more globally integrated.

But, as we know from biology, natural selection applies to all creatures, not only the large and powerful. Smaller organisations are also undergoing parallel changes. They are discovering, to their delight, that small does not necessarily mean local.

This is very new. In the past, if you were a small businessperson, you were a local businessperson. You served a local market, had local suppliers and drew from a local workforce. You maintained a local storefront and strong local relationships.

Of course, this local-to-local model will always be with us, but it is now being complemented by something novel. Many small businesses have figured out that the potential buyers of their products and services are not just their neighbours. They can now also reach out to the fast-growing "global middle class" - which, according to the World Bank, will include 1.2bn people in developing countries by the year 2030. That is 15 per cent of the world's population, up from 400m today.

This vast group of new consumers will have annual purchasing power of between $4,000 and $17,000 per capita and will enjoy access to international travel, cars, other advanced products and international levels of education. They will not care where those products and services are created.

Entrepreneurs, like corporate chiefs, have noticed. Thanks to the globally networked infrastructure that was built on open standards during the 1990s, this new species - the global small business - can tap into worldwide supply chains and global talent pools, with skills available any time, anywhere. They are able to adopt very new kinds of management systems - networked, real-time and highly collaborative. They can find, partner with and even aggregate with other organisations rapidly.

The economic and societal importance of this cannot be overstated. Small companies and entrepreneurs are the engines of job creation for local communities and regions. Jobs - how they are created and how they are lost - are arguably the single most important hot-button issue in the escalating debate on global integration.

It is an axiom in democratic societies that "all politics is local". Well, that also applies to jobs. Therefore, the most important actor in the unfolding drama of global integration may actually be the smallest and closest to home - the new global entrepreneur.

Perhaps not surprisingly, given its novelty, there are few existing mechanisms to support this promising new player. One interesting approach to fill that gap could be an online exchange, specifically designed for the new global entrepreneur, and for the many regional planning and governmental authorities focused on helping them and on creating the jobs of the future.

When everything is connected, work flows. In the era we are now entering, the key to success will be whether you can get work to flow to you. That will depend not on how big you are or where you are located, but on how you differentiate yourself through innovation, within a much larger and more open arena. Today, these same criteria - and opportunities - apply to the small as well as the large.

We are surrounded today by vast new possibilities, but they bring with them an unprecedented complexity to social and economic life. Yet, for all its challenges, hundreds of millions of entrepreneurs, professionals and "new global citizens" seem eager to take this journey.

Will we?

The writer is chairman, president and chief executive, IBM