成本控制的方向
<P>最近家园里谈成本控制的较多，结合我实际工作经验，就成本控制的几方面策略或则方向发表一点意见，希望能给从事经营管理方面的朋友一些参考或启发：</P><P>一、制定并坚持成本领先战略</P>
<P>二、规模采购</P>
<P>三、均衡生产</P>
<P>四、控制库存、控制车间耗用</P>
<P>五、提高劳动生产率</P>
<P>六、合理生产布局，优化运输物流</P>
<P>七、合理避税</P>
<P>各个企业都有自己的运作模式，成本控制的各项具体操作措施我就不详细叙述了。</P> <P>投资者不但关注企业能赚多少钱，更关注企业能否实现它“许下”的承诺。因此，企业预算的作用显得尤为重要。</P><P>把握客户的需求对企业预算而言，至关重要。它不仅是预算的基础，还决定着企业能否有一个高成长的未来。</P><P>精确预测之后，企业一定要达到其预期收入，否则，会失信于人，以后的融资将更加困难、成本会更高。</P> 说得有道理 <P>我所在的是房地产行业</P><P>就房地产而言，我觉得主要是要做好</P><P>1、项目预算成本：这需要各个口的管理人员很有经验</P><P>2、合同管理：管理所有的合同，结合一定软件对每个合同的执行形成动态成本并加以监控</P><P>3、合理避税</P> <DIV class=O v:shape="_x0000_s1026"><DIV '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>开发商的目标： </B></DIV><DIV '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B></B><B>将资本投资在那些产生的税后收益较高的项目上，与其它可选投资比较时必</B><B>须考虑到风险因素并作适当的调整 </B></DIV><DIV '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>投资家的目标： </B></DIV><DIV '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B></B><B>以小于其内在价值（即资产可产生未来现金流的现值）的价格来购买不动产</B><B>或者不动产证券 </B></DIV><DIV right; mso-line-spacing: '90 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><DIV v:shape="_x0000_s1026"><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 240; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>计算程式 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 504; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>估计毛租金 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 504; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>减去估算的空置损失 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 504; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>加上其它收入 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 504; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B>＝实际的总收入 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 504; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>减去运营费用 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 504; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B>＝净运营收入或</B><B>“</B><B>NOI</B><B>”</B><B> </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 504; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>减去债务还本付息 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 504; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B>＝税前现金流（</B><B>“</B><B>BTCF</B><B>”</B><B>） </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 504; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>把抵押偿还本金加到</B><B>BTCF</B><B>上 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 504; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>减去折旧 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 504; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B>＝须纳税的收入 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 504; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>减去应缴税金或者加上节省的税款 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 504; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B>＝税后现金流（</B><B>“</B><B>ATCF</B><B>”</B><B>） </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '90 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 240; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B>应对上述各项参数投资期</B><B>5</B><B>到</B><B>10</B><B>年的变化进行估测 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; mso-line-spacing: '90 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 240; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><DIV v:shape="_x0000_s1026"><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>重要的金融比率（用于决定投资的可行性） </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>毛租金乘数 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>贷款价值（</B><B>LTV</B><B>）比 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>债务覆盖率（</B><B>DCR</B><B>） </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>盈亏平衡点 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>费用比 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>税前股本回报率 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>税后股本回报 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>资产回报 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>内部回报率 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>转售价格 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; mso-line-spacing: '90 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><DIV v:shape="_x0000_s1026"><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>有关财务杠杆和运营的比率（用于风险管理） </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>贷款价值比率 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>债务覆盖率（</B><B>DCR</B><B>） </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>盈亏平衡点 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>费用比 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; mso-line-spacing: '90 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>
[转帖]爱走了如何才能不受伤
<DIV v:shape="_x0000_s1026"><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>毛租金乘数</B><B>（相当于</B><B>“</B><B>投资回收期</B><B>”</B><B>） </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>收购价除以毛租金 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>此比率越低越好 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>一个很简单的数字比较，一般只能用作投资项目的初略筛选 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; mso-line-spacing: '90 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><DIV v:shape="_x0000_s1026"><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>贷款价值比 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B></B><B>抵押贷款额（</B><B>Loan</B><B>）</B><B>/</B><B>收购价（</B><B>Value</B><B>） </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>估量房地产投资的金融风险 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>违约风险随</B><B>LTV</B><B>的升高而升高 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>行业内典型的</B><B>LTV</B><B>控制在</B><B>75%</B><B>以下 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>债务覆盖率（</B><B>DCR</B><B>） </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B></B><B>净营运收入</B><B>/</B><B>债务还本付息 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>必须超过</B><B>1.0</B><B>才有能力偿还抵押贷款 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>大多数贷出方一般要求债务覆盖率达到约</B><B>1.1</B><B>或</B><B>1.3 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B></B></DIV><DIV class=O style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; mso-line-spacing: '90 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><DIV v:shape="_x0000_s1026"><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>盈亏平衡点 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B></B><B>（运营费用</B><B>+</B><B>抵押付款）</B><B>/</B><B>估计毛租金 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>建筑为了能支付所有的现金开支和融资偿还必须达到的入住率 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>一般在</B><B>65%</B><B>至</B><B>95%</B><B>范围内 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>费用比 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B></B><B>运营费用</B><B>/</B><B>实际的总收入 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>用于与其他的房地产作比较，单独本身并无太大的用途 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>应该足够高以保持物业的正常运转，同时使有关费用如能源成本得到控制避免浪费 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B></B></DIV><DIV class=O style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; mso-line-spacing: '90 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><DIV v:shape="_x0000_s1026"><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>单一期间的或者静态的赢利量度标准 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>税前股本回报率 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>税后股本回报率 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>资产回报或者期初资本还原率 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; mso-line-spacing: '90 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><DIV v:shape="_x0000_s1026"><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>税前股本回报率 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B></B><B>税前现金流量</B><B>/</B><B>股本投资额 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>往往用一测度初始赢利水平 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>此比率越高越好 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>通常第一年税前股本回报率一般在</B><B>4-10%</B><B>的范围内 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>税后股本回报 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B></B><B>税后现金流</B><B>/</B><B>股本投资额 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>类似于税前股本回报率 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>加上考虑到投资房地产常可避税的好处 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>能常第一年大致在</B><B>5-12%</B><B>范围内 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B></B></DIV><DIV class=O style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; mso-line-spacing: '90 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><DIV v:shape="_x0000_s1026"><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>资产回报率 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B></B><B>净营运收入</B><B>/</B><B>收购价或者市场价值 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>又称资本还原率，反映总体回报水平 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>一项物业可以承受多大的债务；此比率越高，表示可支持的俩务就越多 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>通常资本还原率大致在</B><B>8-12%</B><B>范围内 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; mso-line-spacing: '90 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><DIV class=O v:shape="_x0000_s1026"><DIV '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>多期间或者动态回报量度 </B></DIV><DIV '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>净现值（</B><B>NPV</B><B>） </B></DIV><DIV '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>内部回报率（</B><B>IRR</B><B>） </B></DIV><DIV right; mso-line-spacing: '90 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><DIV v:shape="_x0000_s1026"><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>转售价格计算 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B></B><B>预定年的净运营收</B><B>/R </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>这里</B><B>R</B><B>表示物业的期末资本还原率 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>记住从期待的转售价格中扣除合理的交易成本 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>并须考虑到税收的影响 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; mso-line-spacing: '90 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><DIV v:shape="_x0000_s1026"><DIV class=O style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>净现值（</B><B>NPV</B><B>）的计算 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>预测未来的现金流 </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>以要求的回报率把未来的现金流折成现值： </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"><B>现值</B><B>V</B><B>0</B><B>=CF</B><B>1</B><B>/(1+r)+CF</B><B>2</B><B>/(1+r)</B><B>2</B><B>+…+(CF</B><B>t</B><B>+V</B><B>t</B><B>)/(1+r)</B><B>t </B></DIV><DIV class=O1 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">◗<B>决策的基本原则是 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>选择</B><B>NPV</B><B>（</B><B>=CF</B><B>0</B><B>+V</B><B>0</B><B>）最大的方案，即</B><B>NPV</B><B>最大化 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>永远不要选择</B><B>NPV</B><B>小于</B><B>0</B><B>的方案 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>要求的回报率</B><B>=</B><B>底限回报率</B><B>=</B><B>无风险回报</B><B>+</B><B>风险回报 </B></DIV><DIV class=O2 style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 720; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1">l<B>正常的投资收益（即预期回报）中已考虑了风险程度的影响，如果</B><B>NPV>0</B><B>，</B><B>r</B><B>就会超</B><B>出正常收益 </B></DIV><DIV class=O style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; mso-line-spacing: '90 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1"></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV> 现代的成本管理控制需要变革了
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