[学术研究]市场份额与市场价格
价格是影响市场份额的重要因素之一，公司不断调整产品的价格就是为了增加销售业绩（利润）和市场份额，但是市场份额与市场价格之间存在怎么样的关系呢？<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><EM>1975年</EM><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Bell et al提出市场分额的吸引力(Attractive)模型 </SPAN><EM>S<SUB>i</SUB></EM></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"> = A<SUB>i</SUB> <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> /(A<SUB>i</SUB>+A<SUB>j</SUB>+A<SUB>k</SUB>+...)</SPAN></SPAN>
<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><EM>S<SUB>it</SUB></EM><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"> =品牌i的市场分额</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>
<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"></SPAN>A<SUB>i</SUB> =品牌i的吸引力</SPAN></SPAN>
<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">以上是吸引力(Attractive)模型的通用形式，具体什么是吸引力元素则要根据不同的上下文来定义，其中应用得比较广泛的一种就是<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>MCI模型 (Multiplicative Competitive Interaction Model) </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>
<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><EM>S<SUB>it</SUB></EM></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"> = <SUB><SPAN style="POSITION: relative; TOP: 16pt; mso-text-raise: -16.0pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = v ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" /><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75 coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> </v:shapetype></SPAN></SUB>exp(a<SUB>i</SUB>)P<SUB>1t</SUB>P<SUB>2t</SUB>P<SUB>3t</SUB>P<SUB>4t.......</SUB>P<SUB>kt</SUB>D<SUB>it</SUB>A<SUB>it （还有上标没法打）</SUB></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>
<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">P<SUB>kt </SUB>= 竞争品牌k在时间t的价格</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>
<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">D<SUB>it =</SUB>品牌i在时间t的分布（产品陈列，比如在货架的位置、空间等，0-1变量）</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>
<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">A<SUB>it =</SUB>品牌i在时间t是否在广告期（0-1变量）</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>
<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">这个是基本模型，它还可以其他变量扩展或者是其他形式。</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>
<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">附件所带的数据是某超市统计的107个星期的自有品牌和另一名牌的两个SIZE的早餐麦片的市场价格和分额数据，不包括广告和展位等数据。求市场份额与市场价格的关系模型</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>
<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">我能得到的模型的R平方值最大只有.427，不知道诸位家人能找到更好的模型否？</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>
<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">附件是rar格式，由于论坛不支持，我把扩展名改成bmp了。</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>
---------------------------------------------------------
感谢糊涂总管的提醒，我把数据放到资源中心的市场营销里面去了，rar文件，数据文件格式是excel。
<A href="footmark.asp?Boardid=32&ID=20502" target="_blank" >footmark.asp?Boardid=32&ID=20502</A><BR>
[此贴子已经被作者于2004-3-15 3:59:50编辑过] 关于附件请把bmp文件下载后把扩展名改回rar就行了
//建模型regression没少做，我是用logarithm把它拆开来做线性回归 你可以把资料发在资源中心,做个链接过来就可以了.... :) 资源中心找不到了呢？
页:
[1]