mario99 发表于 2010-7-9 00:10:19

[转帖]牛刀:赌徒的世界杯和开发商的房价

<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 52.5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.5"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 15pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体">牛刀:赌徒的世界杯和开发商的房价<span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US"> </span></span></p>
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<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>世界杯,看到现在,看什么呢?德国战车屠杀阿根廷。阿根廷是那么好屠杀的吗?很多球迷不信,但是,足球就是足球,阿根廷以</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">0</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>比</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">4</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>落败。此前,当阿根廷越位进球时,裁判判决有效,那有效就是有效,阿根廷进一球。事后,裁判自己看见录像时,也大吃一惊。这谁能料得到呢?</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>所以,很多人抱着赌的心态看球。看足球,只有到了赌的地步,才有了一种境界,绿茵场上的精彩瞬间,才变成了酒吧里的狂饮和狂欢,才有了作为一个球迷的激情和狂热。除此,看不到更多的乐趣。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>中国的房地产也一样。今年新政执行开始,到现在已经有两个多月了。尽管房子没人买,成交量一落千丈,北京一天从一千多套的成交量惨落到一百多套,有时一天只能卖几十套房子。深圳更是莫名其妙,一天只能卖出三五十套房子,最少的一天只能卖出</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">2</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>套房子。卖不出房子,没有别的原因,只是不肯降价。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>从社会上很多现象,应该看见很多人都为开发商着急啊。北京市公安局来了一位新局长,一看开发商的楼不好卖,就知道这帮大亨连泡妞的钱都没有,连忙下令,把天上人间给端了。你说开发商都没钱了,天上人间那么多小姐为谁准备?闲着,也是闲着,还不如一窝端了。</span></p>
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<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>正像发改委大肆投资,修好了宁沪高铁,可是没人坐,上座率只有</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">10%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>。怎么办?政府一声令下,把原先的动车给停了,全部坐高铁。这不解决问题了吗?还有上海,花了那么多钱办世博,没人去怎么办?给全体市民发票,再赠送交通费,国有企业给员工买票组织来看世博,不也解决问题了吗?</span></p><ins></ins>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><u></u>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>可是,房子建的太多,房价炒得太高,问题也太大,就没有那么好解决了。万科半年报出来,</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">6</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>月份全国市场占有率提高了</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">2%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>,何故?只因为降价了</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">15%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>,所以放大了成交量,保证了业绩增长和现金流。与万科一同降价的还有很多地产商,上海的绿地、深圳的佳兆业、广州的恒大等等,都开始在全国降价销售。当然,在低迷的成交量中,保持了一定的销售。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>但是,绝大多数开发商宁肯零成交,也决不降价。为什么?一个字:赌。就像看世界杯一样,只有进入了赌的境界,才让人充满激情。事实上,赌房价有过辉煌的时刻。</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">2008</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>年,宏观调控比现在严厉得多,先后</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">6</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>次提高存款准备金率</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>次加息,直接绞断开发商的资金链。有的开发商挺不住,降价卖楼,最后输的很惨;有的开发商高息借贷,做猪坚强,硬挺住房价,结果,不仅没降价,还翻着倍的赚钱。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>这一次,还没有加息,表明市场流动性旺盛,而中国的高房价就是靠货币撑起来的,央行不加息,表明管理层不是真心调房价,只是做做样子,给老百姓看,就像世界杯,必须有观众。这时降房价,不是</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">SB</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>吗?所以,</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">80%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>以上开发商就这么挺在这里,不仅不降房价,反而涨价,你爱买不买,随你。</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>年</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>月</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>日消息:北京市住建委公布了第二季度北京商品住宅成交均价排名,</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>东钓鱼台家园</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>售价</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">109382</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>元</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">/</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>平方米,排名第一,环比上月大涨</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">34%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>,排名最低的也超过</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">4.2</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>万元</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">/</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>平方米,环比涨幅超过</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">14.3%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>。</span></p>
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<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>最近,郑州市统计局完成了对</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">50</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>家重点房地产开发企业关于政策影响的问卷调查,并发布了调查报告。</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">50</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>家重点企业中,</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">58%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>的企业预计三季度及全年销售面积会下降,但只有</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">12%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>的企业认为商品房售价会下降。尽管不少房企的销量已经出现下降,但企业制定的价格仍在</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>坚挺</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>中。调查结果显示,与政策出台前比较,有</span><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">80%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>的企业销售价格持平。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>这就是新政两个月的效果。新政没什么效果,决策层面不是积极找原因,而是流露出一副“两难”的样子。这一下,开发商赌的底气更足了。经济下滑,最后还的看爷们卖楼。这也是房价不降的主要原因之一。既然赌,开发商肯定是想赌个明明白白,与世界杯相比,开发商有一个最大的优势,那就是赌房价的特点是,裁判是政府,关键时候,裁判一个黑哨就决定了胜负。而这个裁判早就被开发商买通了。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>不仅如此,还有更深层的意义,因为中国的房价赌场本身就是政府开的,政府还培养了自己的球星,一到土地流拍的时候,这些球星就上场,到处做地王,一个一个不把钱当一回事,所以,把地价拍得越高越好。这个轮回,又快开始了。国土部徐部长说三个月后降房价,就成了这场房价赌局的侯宝林,成了相声大师。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" XML:LANG="EN-US">&nbsp;<wbr></span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" new="new" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: &nbsp;&nbsp;roman?? new?&nbsp;&nbsp;roman?;>因为这场赌局不如世界杯公平,老百姓本来可以只做观众,不用参与。可是不用参与还不行,政府会想办法送你门票,就像上海世博一样。然后,政府还可以停下动车,只准坐高铁,就像停下社会保障房,只准去买商品房道理一样。这还能让开发商降房价吗?</span></p>

永远有爱 发表于 2010-7-11 08:32:07

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