[原创]我国工程机械销量预测
<br/><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" bold? mso-bidi-font-weight: ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?; new="New" New? Roman?;>近年来挖掘机销量随着城镇固定资产投资的增长而不断增长，从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">03</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" bold? mso-bidi-font-weight: ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?; new="New" New? Roman?;>年到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">08</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" bold? mso-bidi-font-weight: ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?; new="New" New? Roman?;>年的数据表明挖掘机销量与固定资产投资成明显正比。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" bold? mso-bidi-font-weight: ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?; new="New" New? Roman?;></span> 11.jpg ：</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" bold? mso-bidi-font-weight: ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?; new="New" New? Roman?;></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></span> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??>因此构建全国挖掘机销量和城镇固定资产投资的回归模型</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??></span> 22.jpg ：<br/></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??></span> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??>回归模型公式：</span><span lang="EN-US">y = 0.471x +1085.6 </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??>其中</span><span lang="EN-US">x:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??>全国城镇固定资产投资总额</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>y : </span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??>全国挖掘机市场总销量，</span><span lang="EN-US">R<sup>2 </sup>= 0.9049</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??>，说明回归效果较好。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??>依据此模型对</span><span lang="EN-US">2009</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??>年和</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??>年挖掘机销量进行预测。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??>假设：</span><span lang="EN-US">2009</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??>年全国城镇固定资产投资为</span><span lang="EN-US">31%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??>，</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: new="New" New? Roman?; Roman??>年增速为</span><span lang="EN-US">20%-30%</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><span lang="EN-US"></span> 33.jpg ：</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><span lang="EN-US"></span> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" bold? mso-bidi-font-weight: ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?; new="New" New? Roman?;>预计</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">2010</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" bold? mso-bidi-font-weight: ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?; new="New" New? Roman?;>年挖掘机市场大有可为，市场总需求量可超过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">11</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" bold? mso-bidi-font-weight: ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?; new="New" New? Roman?;>万台，乐观可达</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">12</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times new=" bold? mso-bidi-font-weight: ?Times mso-hansi-font-family: Roman?; new="New" New? Roman?;>万台。</span></p><br/><br/>
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