[转帖]下跌终结震荡金价，单边行情仍需确认
<p class="MsoNormal" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18.8pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align="left"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周一现货黄金大幅走低，开盘<span lang="EN-US">1052.85</span>美元，亚洲盘金价运行平稳，依然保持着近期的震荡行情，美盘中空方突然发力，金价从单日高点<span lang="EN-US">1059.55</span>美元开始快速下跌，最低<span lang="EN-US">1036.25</span>美元，最终收盘<span lang="EN-US">1038.65</span>美元，单日下跌<span lang="EN-US">14.2</span>美元。大跌使得勉强维持的涨势被完全破坏，布林带迅速收紧，五日十日均线转头向下，从前几轮下跌的调整幅度看，此轮下跌在<span lang="EN-US">1031</span>美元与<span lang="EN-US">1021</span>美元将会存在着支撑，判断是否是单边的下跌为时尚早，空单仍然是短线为主。每次黄金价格出现较大的变动，黄金<span lang="EN-US">ETF</span>都会有所表现，截至<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="26" month="10" year="2009"><span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">26</span>日</st1:chsdate><span lang="EN-US">SPDR</span>持仓量下降至<span lang="EN-US">1106.874</span>吨，较前一日减少<span lang="EN-US">1.22</span>吨。近期的小幅减仓对投资者的心理作用要大于其实际的卖盘压力，虽然基本面上黄金并没存在实质性的利好，但商品市场整体的人气是十分高涨的，美元地位的降低让市场中充斥着各方抛售的美元，在美元走势短期内无法逆转的情况下商品市场仍然会维持在较高的位置。<span lang="EN-US"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18.8pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align="left"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">原油期货价格是市场关注的另一个焦点，成功在<span lang="EN-US">2005</span>年预测国际油价将突破<span lang="EN-US">100</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>桶的高盛投资公司最近又对国际油价做出了预测，该公司认为在中国和印度需求旺盛的推动下国际油价今年底前将突破<span lang="EN-US">85</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>桶，<span lang="EN-US">2010</span>年则将维持在<span lang="EN-US">95</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>桶的历史高位。如果对高盛的预测成功率进行一个统计，准确率应该是惨不忍睹的，一个投资机构言论的公正性本身就是个笑话，原油期货价格昨日继续回落，连续两日收阴，收盘<span lang="EN-US">78.54</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>桶，最低<span lang="EN-US">77.94</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>桶。原油期货在<span lang="EN-US">75</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>桶上方从未出现过长期的震荡行情，上次<span lang="EN-US">75</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>桶上方以连续的大单边行情告终，此轮<span lang="EN-US">75</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>桶的原油价格受到的压力较大，此轮回落至<span lang="EN-US">75</span>美元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>桶下方的机会较大，黄金也将受到一定的打压。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18.8pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align="left"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">数据提示：北京时间<span lang="EN-US">19</span>点英国发布<span lang="EN-US">CBI</span>分销业调查零售销售差额，<span lang="EN-US">20</span>点<span lang="EN-US">30</span>分美国发布里奇蒙德联储制造指数，<span lang="EN-US">21</span>点美国公布<span lang="EN-US">S&P/CS</span>房价指数年率与月率，<span lang="EN-US">22</span>点公布消费者信心指数。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18.8pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align="left"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> </span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">操作建议：晚盘可于<span lang="EN-US">1045</span>美元做空，短线目标<span lang="EN-US">1038</span>美元，隔夜目标<span lang="EN-US">1032</span>美元，止损<span lang="EN-US">1051</span>美元。</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 20.4pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; tab-stops: 85.6pt" align="left"><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">更多即时建议，可加</span></b><span lang="EN-US">Q Q: 1 2 4 7 1 1 1 3 6 3</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> </span></p>
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