蝴蝶效应
<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><strong>蝴蝶效应</strong></span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><br/> </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">某地上空一只小小的蝴蝶扇动翅膀而扰动了空气，长时间后可能导致遥远的彼地发生一场暴风雨，以此比喻长时期大范围天气预报往往因一点点微小的因素造成难以预测的严重后果。微小的偏差是难以避免的，从而使长期天气预报具有不可预测性或不准确性。这如同打台球、下棋及其他人类活动，往往</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">“</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">差之毫厘，失之千里</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">“</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">一着不慎，满盘皆输</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">。长时期大范围天气预报是对于地球大气这个复杂系统进行观测计算与分析判断，它受到地球大气温度、湿度、压强诸多随时随地变化的因素的影响与制约，可想其综合效果的预测是难以精确无误的、蝴蝶效应是在所必然的．我们人类研究的对象还涉及到其他复杂系统（包括</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">“</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">自然体系</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">与</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">“</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">社会体系</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">），其内部也是诸多因素交相制约错综复杂，其</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">“</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">相应的蝴蝶效应</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">也是在所必然的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">“</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">今天的蝴蝶效应</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">或者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">“</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">广义的蝴蝶效应</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">已不限于当初洛仑兹的蝴蝶效应仅对天气预报而言，而是一切复杂系统对初值极为敏感性的代名词或同义语，其含义是：对于一切复杂系统，在一定的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">“</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">阈值条件</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">下，其长时期大范围的未来行为，对初始条件数值的微小变动或偏差极为敏感，即初值稍有变动或偏差，将导致未来前景的巨大差异，这往往是难以预测的或者说带有一定的随机。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><br/><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;"/><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;"/></span>
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