基于数据仓库的销售预测系统
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''">通过基于数据仓库的销售预测系统采用数据仓库技术实现</SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''">销售预测数据的录入和对比分析；</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''">财务盈利和成本等数据的预测分析</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''">采购和生产计划的中长期预测对比分析</SPAN></P>
<H4 style="MARGIN: 14pt 0cm 6pt"><A name=_Toc193702268><SPAN lang=EN-US>1 </SPAN></A><SPAN style="mso-bookmark: _Toc193702268"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial">销售预测方法</SPAN></SPAN></H4>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">销售预测的方法有多种，可以通过统计技术，也可以采用直觉或经验，哪一类手段更好则无一定之规，但是应该注意，不要拘泥于某一种销售预测手段，而要视实际情况来加以预测。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 21pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> <img alt="" src="http://www.folo.cn/UploadFiles/2008-4/56798.55290485.jpg" border=0/></SPAN></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 21pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> </SPAN></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">时间数列分析法是一种广泛应用的数量分析方法，主要用于描述和探索现象随时间发展变化的数量规律性。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">时间数列分析法已经成为销售预测中具有代表性的方法，一般所称的销售预测大多是指时间数列分析法。首先按照年或月的时间顺序，依次排列销售数量或销售额，一般用图或数字资料来表示。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">我们推荐采用时间数列分析法和专家意见法结合进行，时间数列分析包含四种变动因素：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 36pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">n</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">趋势变动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 36pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">n</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">循环变动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 36pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">n</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">不规则变动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 36pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">n</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">季节变动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">趋势变动是时间数列的主要构成要素，是指现象在较长时间内持续发展变化的一种趋向或状态。通过对时间数列趋势变动的分析，可以掌握现象活动的规律性，并对其未来的发展趋势做出判断或预测。在企业，销售的趋势变动、循环变动、季节变动特别明显。体现为每年的季节变动比较有规律，每年在一定的增长趋势下又有一定的销售循环变动，根据时间数列分析方法的原理，结合专家意见法的需要，我们设计了基于数据仓库框架的销售预测系统。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<H4 style="MARGIN: 14pt 0cm 6pt"><A name=_Toc193702269><SPAN lang=EN-US>2 </SPAN></A><SPAN style="mso-bookmark: _Toc193702269"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial">历史数据整合</SPAN></SPAN></H4>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">商务智能系统数据整合就是对数据进行的“净化提炼”处理。所谓数据的“净化提炼”就是对从多个不同业务数据库所抽取的数据，进行数据的整理集中，形成一个完整的数据中心，包括数据项名称的统一、位数的统一、编码的统一和形式的统一，消除重复数据。数据整合的基本过程如下图：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 0cm; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-char-indent-count: 0" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><img alt="" src="http://www.folo.cn/UploadFiles/2008-4/56823.72328333.jpg" border=0/> </SPAN></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 0cm; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-char-indent-count: 0" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> </SPAN></o:p></SPAN></P>
<H4 style="MARGIN: 14pt 0cm 6pt"><A name=_Toc193702270><SPAN lang=EN-US>3 </SPAN></A><SPAN style="mso-bookmark: _Toc193702270"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial">销售预测系统分析</SPAN></SPAN></H4>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 42pt; TEXT-INDENT: -21pt; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 42.0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore">¨<SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">效益分析</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoBodyText style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 21pt; TEXT-INDENT: -21pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.5"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体">） </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">建立有效和可信的公司销售预测和财务预测体系，更好推进公司的工作和加强管理。预测流程无纸化，同时也实现了领导集中审核，提高了工作效率。整个公司的预测体系统一到一个平台上操作，并能保留版本，解决了原各事业部的数据不统一和无法短时间找到历史版本问题<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoBodyText style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.5"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">）为销售系统提供各个角度的决策分析信息，在有效信息的支持下进行销售预测。对实际销售信息进行及时收集、分析并反馈，从而形成与预测目标的对比，诊断差异，及时调整战略目标并持续改进。大大节约销售人员查询历史数据的时间，由原来查询过去一年数据要花<SPAN lang=EN-US>2-3</SPAN>天的时间缩短到只需点击鼠标几分钟立刻找出来过去一年的历史数据<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.5"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">）将数据转变为信息。将集团战略逐渐分解为部门和个人的关键绩效指标，制定相应的行动计划，在执行过程中进行有效监控，并通过信息提示集团恰当地调整战略。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.5"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">）为采购系统提供各个角度的决策分析信息，在有效信息的支持下进行采购绩效和工作重点预测。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormalIndent style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 42pt; TEXT-INDENT: -21pt; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 42.0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Wingdings; mso-bidi-font-family: Wingdings"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore">¨<SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">流程分析</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 15pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">流程图如下：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p> <img alt="" src="http://www.folo.cn/UploadFiles/2008-4/56844.91537609.jpg" border=0/></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 15pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">流程说明<SPAN lang=EN-US>:<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 21pt; TEXT-INDENT: -21pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 21.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">设计的预测体系为滚动预测<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>即每个月要滚动录入往后一年的预测数据<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>录入时默认继承上一版本的预测数据<SPAN lang=EN-US>;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 21pt; TEXT-INDENT: -21pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 21.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">各事业部的预测数据根据各帐套分别录入<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>录入时间为每月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>-25</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>最后一级审核截止时间为当月最后一天<SPAN lang=EN-US>;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 21pt; TEXT-INDENT: -21pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 21.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">审核过的数据自动传到财务部门供财务数据分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 21pt; TEXT-INDENT: -21pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 21.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">系统根据<SPAN lang=EN-US>BOM</SPAN>自动展开物料需求供计划部门进行材料预测分析<SPAN lang=EN-US>;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 21pt; TEXT-INDENT: -21pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 21.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">审核过的数据在<SPAN lang=EN-US>BI</SPAN>系统中进行集团数据合并<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>并提供多维度数据分析和对比<SPAN lang=EN-US>; <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<H4 style="MARGIN: 14pt 0cm 6pt"><A name=_Toc193702271><SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN></A><SPAN style="mso-bookmark: _Toc193702271"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial">销售预测输入设计</SPAN></SPAN></H4>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt 20.15pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18.05pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.5; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-top: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-para-margin-left: .2gd"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ">1</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''">）、整个集团的预测体系统一到一个平台上操作，并能保留版本，解决了原各事业部的数据不统一和无法短时间找到历史版本问题</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''">销售预测录入完成后，通过图表可以直接显示过去一年历史同期和未来销售预测的对比图形，且提供各角度的维度对比</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''">可按地区、客户、产品大类、车间和产品小类进行数据对比，从而对数值有更直接的感觉，更好地判断未来的预测是否合理。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: "> </SPAN></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ">2</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''">）、大大节约销售人员查询历史数据的时间，由原来查询过去一年数据要花</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ">2-3</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''">天的时间缩短到只需点击鼠标既能立刻出来过去一年的历史数据</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''">所有的销售历史都存放在数据仓库，按照统一的格式显示，保证了数据的高速和准确。避免了原来销售数据由相关销售人员保存在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ">EXCEL</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''">中，不能保证数据是否完全和准确。数据不需要人员再加工，查询速度也提高到分钟级别。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: "> </SPAN></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ">3</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''">）、预测流程无纸化，同时也实现了领导集中审核，提高了工作效率</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">在预测系统中实现了销售人员<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>销售主管<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>销售副总<SPAN lang=EN-US>-COO</SPAN>的<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>级录入和审核体系。所有预测工作集中在销售预测系统中，高效流畅，提高了工作效率；并能结合<SPAN lang=EN-US>E-mail</SPAN>系统，及时通知相关人员审核。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">为更好服务于业务和管理，我们通过提供历史销售和预测对比分析，从变化最大、变化最小、变化百分比等角度来关注信息，让相关人员把注意力集中在变化最大和最小的关键点。更有效地采取针对性措施。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ">4</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''">）、审核过的销售预测数据直接进入财务预测，由系统自动计算材料费用预测。</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">为适应财务预算的要求，我们专门设计<SPAN lang=EN-US>EXCEL</SPAN>和预测系统的接口，通过预测系统根据财务规则自动生成成本预测，并把相关财务需要的数据自动连到<SPAN lang=EN-US>EXCEL</SPAN>，利用<SPAN lang=EN-US>EXCEL</SPAN>处理相关数据，然后把<SPAN lang=EN-US>EXCEL</SPAN>中的相关数据导入<SPAN lang=EN-US>Hyperion Essbase</SPAN>数据仓库，进行各种角度的分析和决策支持。</SPAN></DIV>
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<DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 6pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"> 吴栋材<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></DIV> 好文章，有助于我认识并建立一个好的数据模型。
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