[转帖]新闻周刊：人民币升值将终结美“消费黄金时代”
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-outline-level: 2;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">【美国《新闻周刊》网站</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">11</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">2 4</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">日文章】题：中国将吃掉我们的午餐</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">(</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">作者</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face=""></font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">彼得</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">·</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">希夫</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">)<p></p></font></span></p></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16.4pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">中国通货膨胀率最近快速上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">(10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">月份为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">6.5</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">％</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">)</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">，大多数经济学家认为这是经济迅猛增长不可避免的结果。几乎没有人问，一个生产力取得极大发展、有功于全球价格下降的国家，为何不能降低本国的物价。相比之下，美国</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">19</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">世纪同样迅速的工业化在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">100</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">多年的时间里带来了物价的稳步下降。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16.4pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">事实是，中国的高物价及世界其他地区的高物价，是美国低物价的直接后果。当中国政府及中东和拉美政府终于着手消除本国的通货膨胀之时，继之而来的将是全球购买力的大规模调整，美国则是受损的一方。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16.4pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">尽管经济学家力图掩饰明显的事实，但价格毕竟是货币供应的结果。追逐持续商品供应的货币增加，会导致价格上涨。在稳定的货币供应状态中，商品增加则导致价格下跌。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16.4pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">为维持人民币与美元挂钩的地位，中国必须扩大货币供应以购买它每年对美国出口获得的美元。由于可买的美国产品不多，这些美元的很大一部分被中国当做了一种外汇储备。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16.4pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">这一举措使中国产品对美国人来说比较便宜，而且限制了美元的全球供应，从而降低了美国的通货膨胀率。反过来，人民币供应量迅速增加，抑制了生产率上升可能造成的价格下降的压力。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16.4pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">然而，当中国的通货膨胀问题使人民币与美元挂钩的地位越来越难以维持时，中国允许本国货币升值的那一天必将到来。大多数经济学家担心，这会使美国的消费陷于停顿，导致全球衰退。我认为，这将为美国消费的黄金时代敲响丧钟，但它事实上对中国是一件好事。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16.4pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">以美国永不满足的消费意愿为全球繁荣先决条件的经济模式的荒谬性，归结到基本因素时也就不难理解。假设五个亚洲人和一个美国人因遇海难而身困荒岛。为获得最大效益，遇难者作出一种安排，由一名亚洲人去钓鱼，另一人去打猎，第三人采摘水果，第四人捡柴，第五人做饭。而美国人的任务就是吃。在现代经济学家的眼里，那个美国人显然就是这种微观经济的动力；如果没有他的大量消费，这种经济就会停滞。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16.4pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">事实上，消费是一场移动的盛宴。美国人过度消费是因为世界推高了美国货币的购买力。随着美元贬值，我们过度消费的能力也会下降。但是，美国人失去的购买力会转移到其货币相应升值的国家。如果美国停止消费，全球的工厂不会关闭。不喂美国人，亚洲人自己可以吃得更多。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16.4pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">美国的人均</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">GDP</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">4.3</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">万美元，按国际货币基金组织的排名，以人均经济产出衡量，美国现居全球第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">4</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">位。中国的人均产出为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">7600</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">美元，居第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">86</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">位。然而，由于中国人口达</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">13</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">亿之众，其经济产出总额已然跃居全球第三。大多数预测人士估计，到本世纪中期，中国经济总体规模将超越美国。但是，考虑到不断走弱的美元及这种降势使美国经济不可避免地减速这些因素，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">“</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">换岗</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">”</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">的时间将大大提前，很可能在未来五年。货币调整或许很快将美国在按人均</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">GDP</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">排名的全球</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">20</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">强中淘汰出局，屈居希腊和新加坡这些国家之后。</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><font face="">
<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><p><font face=""> </font></p></span></p> 中国，人民币升值，好事抑或坏事？
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